Abu vs The Moon Analysis

Abu vs The Moon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-ZiY1bvvEg

Game 1 BF
8:00 non-neutral start
WD out to avoid fair, fadeback isn’t full so bair whiffs
unsure movement, both players waiting for opening, abu avoids fair by fading out last moment
then WD out to avoid second fair, I would have gotten hit for sure. Bair is CCed but no punish, second bair. Shield is clearly up for 3rd because low%. Not sure what optimal punish is, maybe empty land grab. Abu prioritizes stage.
7:54 WD away from obvious aggression. Marth FH here is interesting because it gives him a lot of option but his legs are vulnerable. Abu respects ff fair and lets the moon down but that much retreat wasn’t necessary. He gets faired for jumping in from too far away.
7:51 Moon WDes out of dtilt when it whiffs, conservatve
follow up bair whiffs and abu takes lots of damage from bad DI. I don’t like trying to punish marth dtilt OoS when not right on top of him, seems like he wins all the time, prefer WD away.
7:45 moon messes up movement and abu touches ground, shields, turns his back, DD, whiff, WD away from dash grab. Roll is probably misclick bair.
7:42 that was actually a rest. You can duck under marth’s nair easy. AC can’t hit crouching puff and there he had time before the ff. Don’t know what made the moon do that.
7:41 the moon dairs. Important to note that he’s willing to do that when puff is on him.
jumps into a bair. Abu gives up too much stage to follow up again and gets faired.
7:37 stalling high waiting for marth to commit time to a jump/retreat so puff regains stage.
7:32 moon isn’t ready for bair but CC dtilts it. Really important to note this consistent reaction. Means that until he’s out of CC you have to super space it unless you hit him in the air.
7:29 gets grabbed out of a land. I would have rolled in after the whiff, make marth work for it.
missed pivot fsmash, abu sneaks back, moon recognizes % and sideB uptilts.
moon in general has shown competence in the MU. Plans are based on %, not over-extending, awareness of puff’s options. He’s ok with letting puff touch the ground and keeping center stage so he can push her off again.
7:18 dtilts the land again. Almost like how armada’s fox uses it. I don’t know why it lands though it’d be weird if that shield poked.
7:15, moon sniffs the approach and fsmash trades for the kill.
7:07 good shield, no need for WD so no grab but ducks the grab punish
weird rest punish
6:59 wow that nair gets a grab but I was waiting for moon to fair out
should be dthrow FH techchase rest. Abu SHs so no punish, second upair could have poked if faded further away, gets faired
6:53 abu is afraid of no stage so he rolls through after moon dashes forward but moon waits it out but then messes up punish
6:53 maybe a rest (or nair grab) bair gets abu 12% and stage
I really dislike the FH after. Marth isn’t high enough so if just puts you in danger.
6:47 barely sneaks through
leaving self empty and turn around after marth runs under is good
6:44 after they both whiff that’s a FH upar but late reaction
marth sees the crossup and nairs OoS which is again an upair
6:38 fair whiffs because it was FH DJ fair instead of SH
6:36 bair probably would connect if abu stayed low and close instead of outside of dtilt spacing
late OoS after dtilt, the moon is ok with just holding center, not looking to press an advantage
6:34 abu goes to side platform instead of pressing for stage here. That’s 2015 hbox. But he gives up his spot right away I don’t know why.
The moon gives him center right after though.
looool the staredown at that bair
6:29 no need to shield after CC. missed opportunity. Moon prioritizes getting back to center, Abu catches him not shielding with upair.
6:25 wow great anticipation of the dair but whiffs the punish
6:22 trades probably reading a second dtilt should have gone low not high after.
uses marth’s endlag to get back with bair
6:15 that was a tricky fsmash
sideB nicks jump, uptilt
6:08 whiffs bair on return, jumps with run but misspaces dair. Marth spotdodges around a potential late grab, I would have done the same dair after but shielded because it makes sense for marth to aeiral out of that spot. Maybe ideally you WD through then watch what he does, looking for roll away.
6:02 I think that is giving marth in the air too much space/respect.
bad spacing vs nair after
5:59 why does that dtilt hit? is abu tilting his shield or something? Weird and dumb.
the grab after is smart. Probably should have just run to the platform. That’s just a bad position for puff to try to play neutral.
5:48 Idk why you would do that fsmash. That was an awkward spacing to punish OoS so easiest is upsmash but that fsmash wasn’t going to work ever. 0/10 times.
The DI in the throw is always down and away (after 0). It’s a really hard reaction though.
5:34 marth predicts the aerial timing so he gets a nair
5:32 I do not like puff holding in there.
the moon makes puff go too low threatening dair, abu runs out of jumps because he’s afraid to pound. pounding is ok though because if you get tilted you can DI it up for extra chances. There was one clear DJ grab ledge in the middle of all that and at least one pound.

Stocks:
crouch rest grab punish after missed grab

Stocks Lost:
preemptive bair gets fsmashed
jumps into sideB uptilt
WD fsmash OoS gets shielded grabbed tipper
gets funneled downward and uses too many jumps recovering.

Two big observations
* You can’t keep marth honest and mix up aerial timings/empty lands/etc if you always act first. If marth is able to just stand still and wait for you to twitch then he doesn’t have to respect you as much. There were lots of opportunities. Moon definitely abused being patient better. Just thinking about it I don’t know what marth’s incentive is if he’s in the lead/has stage. I think it’s really position dependent so you’d probably have to watch the match back and look for positions that require marth to move so that you can put yourself in those spots in the future.
* When stuck under the platform just jump onto it. That’s a horrible horrible position to be vs marth because marth has ample ample dash dance space behind him and you can’t back up any more (because his sword is one of the few things in the game that can easily pressure you when you’re off stage).

Soft’s obs:
"abu is doing a lot of preemptive aerials to marth
which beats marth trying to threaten puff and take space with just his movement
or a marth that is preemptively aerialing
but moon is waiting on abu
and reacting
it becomes really easy for him because abu attacks from too far away most of the time
so he can either react with an aerial or just shield it
an example is in 1:35 of the video
abu attacks from too far away and the moon just shields it
and gets a side b but it looks like he could have gotten a lot more
either way by attacking from a react-able distance moon gets to play really safe and not risk much but get a lot of reward
at 15:42 here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cj65Pl828pY
I am in a very similar situation where I am too far to attack so I empty hop
to bait him to do something
then I get to punish him"


Game 2 DL
8:00 whiff punish gets CC naired. Need to look for % appropriate followups if they exist
Hbox tries to space very close then grab or backs off and looks for next opportunity
abu ends up taking 40 from poor DI off that
small position conversions to hits continue for a while
7:43 lol abu goes right back but does a good job spacing incrementally in this time
7:37 slow reaction
7:35 jump in was weird I don’t know why marth would dash back which is the only thing it would beat
7:30 good WD away from grab but shitty punish choice
upair should have been bair
7:27 stalls high then takes center
7:23 I don’t like that crossup. was a shieldgrab. Maybe crossup was good if puff like uptilts?
7:22 marth intentionally trades which is eh
7:20 marth predicts no jump so grabs.
7:14 good fadeback then second bair
should land run up after knockdown. Shield was anticipating getup attack but you can prompt that better and double tap A option select vs normal getup.
late bair gets naired.
7:06 WD grab
7:04 wowww did he just react to CC with dtilt? Good roll out of situation. Could have punished but that’s a quick reaction from that no warning spot.
Shield is too low to hold it, need to FH to plat I think.
6:56 bad spacing
6:46 slightly misspaced
good wait for twitch after
good shield on reaction to the nair
no OoS punish. You have to do sommmething.
6:41 obv fair needed to bait it out or come from lower
6:36 that was a scary ass fsmash. Moon looks like he’s studied the MU.
6:34 that’s the second time abu shields then rolls after CCing sideB instead of punishing.
dair pokes but abu wasn’t ready for his move to work.
no edgeguard.
good FH spacing around nair
attempts hbox edgeguard but grabs ledge too early
6:08 grab
5:55 need to learn best OoS punish vs nair. I think it’d be dair OoS. It’s only -1 but marths are always immobile after.
abu’s grab is baited hard
5:48 upsmash was too late to work gets faired
upsmash at 197 lol
bair is so stale that it’s an issue.
5:30 coming back low was good but facing away in shield puts him in a bad spot
5:26 bad nair
it’s easier to come back high or low if you go really high then choose because it takes puff so long to jump up
5:23 bad shield pins abu
just keeps putting himself in the corner afraid of marth’s space
4:56 like why is he moving bck now that he’s finally in center?
marth just walks up and kills him
4:47 juggles well but lets marth get through shielding instead of falling
lots of flubby movement
4:22 moon is happy to trade hits with the whole stage behind him and a stock up
smells abu being nervous and empty hop grabs
4:14 second upair too slow
abu’s been shielding every time he lands so moon just grabs him raw
4:04 bair punish was late so trades
3:59 dair grab from ledge is good, DI grants bair
3:50 good upair
3:48 don’t know why dropped shield it was good posiiton
3:42 another shield poke? I’m gonna have to look that up. Maybe the middle hitbox has priority or something.
abu is at high enough % and uses enough jumps the moon can just meet him
3:30 retreats so far away
3:25 bad spacing after such high nair, eats fairs, poor DI, ken combo

Stocks
upsmash at 197 lol
dair grab backthrow bair

Stocks Lost
spaces too close to land, gets uptilted
WD forward is fsmashed at high %
marth jumps out and fairs stall jumps
bad DI off fair string, ken combo



rest of the set is kind of more of the same so don't want to do it right now.