Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Tekk vs Amsah Analysis

Tekk vs Amsah

Game 1 BF

8:00 non-neutral/sheik start but they’re polite and tekk just takes center
7:57 FH nair keeps sheik in the corner, backward jump to watch for sheik’s reaction
7:56 why is he already there with a fair? How would he know that?
reads the needles after too
7:50 interesting choice to wait and nair the land instead of fair, late so gets naired
7:47 poor spacing
next section he spaces overtly out of range and horizontal
7:39 gets 2 bairs that way w/ stage
7:37 shield is too healthy for that uptilt, naired anyway. I would have low upaired WD back.
7:36 funny dash attack
7:34 sheik can’t grab so shield then choose OoS based on aerial
good reaction to the dair (also restable OoS)
looks like tekk looks for techchase rest opportunity
could have WDed to ledge
spaces outside of aerial range, bad reaction to airdodge
sheik gets center out of it
7:26 good to recognize tempo and wait outside of sheik’s FH,
tekk’s aerial placement so far makes it look like he tries to read jumps raw a lot
7:24 bad jump
7:23 flubbed ledgecancel
7:19 quick movement through plat
7:16 tries to stagespike sheik but misspaced
takes center, sheik rolls in and buffers spotdodge, grab
7:14 shield means expecting dsmash
WD away seeing crossup
jumps right into the 45, obv not good
7:09 bad nair
7:05 not good spacing
7:01 good bair but amsah rolls, that’s ok there’s stage
amsah jumps up, he’s demonstrated a want to do that
tekk with him but doesn’t expect DJ so gets needled
I think fair instead of bair would have solved that
6:57 why no bair?
6:55 reads the movement but poor reward
2 more empty jumps that say “I recognize that attempt is not going to work, I want to wait a moment”
but not good positioning with them.
6:52 amsah jumps into nair (looking for another vulnerable jump?) gets comboed
6:45 really good spacing around the aerial, slow punish, should have grabbed landing
6:41 where soft spaces out on the ground then jumps toward with fair, tekk jumps out then fades in with bair (worse results here)
6:39 reads the movement
6:35 hbox would have intercepted the fall
I think getup was too late
6:29 really good vertical spacing
shitty edgeguard
6:24 doesn’t poke, spaced too close for whiff punish
6:22 bad spacing
6:17 FH nair on recognition of sheik landing so far away
6:12 goes high to stall for time
6:08 good WD, bad instead of ok crossup because sheik shielded in time
6:03 FH nair from the corner works again
so much preemptive stuffing amsah’s jumps
6:00 amsah baits a jump so he can do that
5:55 sheik jumps into fair, then upair, sdi up makes followup hard
no jump sheik, another upair, rests fair startup
really really important stock to take
and off of jump reads
5:48 stalls outside of range
5:45 stays just above FH height again, gets nair pressure
5:43 kind of interesting, example where tekk leaves FH empty
most puffs would FH bair
he leaves it then dj bair to maintian height/orientation
that seems to be his focus. To stay at a height and to stay relatively open.
5:42 sheik challenges tekk to interrupt needle charge without getting hit, tekk flubs approach
staying horizontal, anticipating sheik’s movement, nair is fast but doesn’t combo
5:36 oh yeah the god-granted pound lol
late to rest because that was a surprise
5:32 goes to vertical nair pressure but slow
5:28 reads that movement again
upair forces no jump, bair
5:26 that turnaround nair is very tekk-specific
5:23 too slow
too slow to punish dsmash but threaten is enough for grab
5:19 no WD to ledge again
5:17 reads an aerial
5:15 does nair because he recognizes he’s late
5:13 grab
5:07 amsah wasn’t sure which way tekk would go from the edgecancel
WD away then fsmash the trigger movement
5:03 chooses to shield and stay close
4:57 good spacing but slow
4:55 vertical nair
ooh good shield
4:45 good empty land
slow reaction to airdodge, predictable at low%
4:39 vertical nair
4:32 booooooooo
just watches his spacing for a while
4:16 reads the aerial
gets the combo fair but hesitates
4:12 don’t like that spotdodge unless he thinks amsah will grab but amsah hasn’t ever treid
4:05 poor spacing
4:02 same situation as the rest combo this time sheik goes down after hit 1
tekk keeps landing next to sheik and spotdodging I don’t know what he’s looking for but it’s not happening
some bad spacing
3:49 tricky puff stuff
3:43 bad spacing
3:31 good fair
3:25 lets sheik back so that he can vertical nair crossup
3:00 wow godlike DI but bad positioning to get there lol
2:51 again lol
2:44 both choking

fair at high%
upair combo to rest off of jump reads
delay then fsmash the OoS option
fair at high%

Stocks Lost
bad nair, bad spacing on vertical recovery
sheik falls on top of puff from top plat with strong bair
bad spacing from corner, gets faired

Game 2 YS

8:00 non-neutral, amsah with good option coverage
gets counter hit and stage, leads to additional aerial
7:56 maybe fh upair would have caught the land
7:55 slightly misspaced upair
7:53 threatens bair then amazing empty land uptilt but misses rest, analog jump
7:46 amsah lets him back to center looking to punish land but tekk spaces out
horizontal spacing
7:43 this is an interesting nair, it covers a lot of options
sheik gets a clutch dj so no combo to uptilt
7:42 poor DI
makes way back by threatening vertical spacing
7:37 slow to shield or drop
7:35 spaced too far out for upair
7:31 good situation reaction for grab
7:28 goes for stage spike, ehhh not good
7:23 reads the dsmash, close enough for grab
goes for same fair, sheik gets back again
7:15 rolls away from mixup
dair grab after dsmash, backthrow, no real attempt at edgeguard, prioritizes stage so gets punish on ledgejump
7:02 vertical evasion but stays too close, gets faired
6:55 sheik slow to evade
reads the shitttttt ouf of that jump
kind of awkward followup, jumps for vertical spacing instead of a maybe uptilt
6:52 flubs his spacing
6:49 reaction was too slow to avoid bair but good DI so gets nair punish, ideally dair grab?
takes center
6:47 really really good going under needles
anticipates techchase, rest. Sickkk.
6:38 slow to get out range so takes some hits
6:31 pound because he thinks that sheik will whiff? Seems good but amsah didn’t bit and just jumped again.
6:30 WD away from scuffle
6:26 poor crossup
takes vertical spacing again, nair
then takes center, then bairs the jump
6:23 anticipates bair but amsah spaces it
6:17 oh cool, pounds the landing on the wide whiff
reads the roll sooooo hard but whiffs (; ____ ; )
6:08 gets sheik to jump up then chases, WoP, note hitting close to body
6:00 keeps great horizontal spacing, slow to fair off of edgecancel
fairs the runoff option then nairs feet, should upair (maybe because he doesn’t claw)
5:54 rawww read on jump but not enough hitstun to combo
ummmm ok that was maybe the worst rest punish I’ve ever seen
5:49 they’re both a bit nervous to commit to grounded mixup
5:45 slow reaction to jump
vertical spacing
5:39 he’s done that dash attack before, not quite tech %
5:35 looks like he tried to bait a roll right
5:32 oh gosh that was risky
stays out of sheik range on return until bair at
5:22 takes stage, reacts to ledgejump
easy edgeguard

bair on ledgejump, edgeguard
sneaks under needles, upairs land, techchase rest
forces sheik up with inv then wop
spaces outside of jump, wop, edgeguard

Stocks Lost
faired staying too close vs inv
missed rest, zelda kick
trades upair with sheik upsmash

Game 3 PS
8:00 takes center but slow to react to needles
jumps with jump
trying to fill air above sheik
7:52 whiff punish after fadeback, not followed through enough for combo
7:50 gives himself lots of room
7:48 dairs jump or land
7:46 avoiding ground game altogether
7:44 premature fall
7:41 not enough fadeback to fix nair
7:38 spacing far enough away it’s like marth
7:37 choice of whiff punish
7:35 wants him to roll so badly, fading back until whiff punish on run off fair is fine
easy dash attack (jab reset) on missed tech
both misjudge height, does not grab ledge
7:25 up and over but not up enough
sits outside of range waiting for overextension
7:19 that’ll work, dashes out to avoid counterhit, dtilt can hit under descending aerial so he’s waiting it out, spaces for crossup nair because amsah demonstrates no ftilt to stuff it
really good spacing after
7:12 too late
shielddrop upair, nice
no double jump, should be upairs to rest
7:02 oh I didn’t know that sweetspotted, ok
6:55 tekk waiting for aerial lets sheik run under
6:47 waiting over sheik’s jumps
6:44 gets the opportunity but is slow to whiff punish (not that it’s easy, sheik’s leg is long)
6:43 goes up with sheik, over the needles is prime, bairs shield
6:42 had already committed his action state to bair so couldn’t punish roll uptilt
6:39 too low % to follow up
6:35 sheik is a little early to antiair so nair connects (would have caught jump too), uptilt, rest
6:30 shield instead of crouch. Tekk seems to shield out of stun at close range either habitually or because he’s more afraid of dsmash than grab.
oh geeze if you could DI like that out of dthrow in ntcs I would shield too.
6:26 good spacing
6:24 tekk turnaround nair to stuff jump space after confirming timing
crossup roll
so that’s tekk’s return from the corner habit
6:23 upair was good if sheik did anything else
6:16 test for jump, hazards descent, amsah doesn’t react
good poke, goes to punish jump, just shy
6:14 WD out to avoid grounded followup, jump is slow so can pressure
crouch after low upair but doesn’t react for rest
6:10 amsah uses grounded puff as opportunity to crossup
ooh, good of tekk not to bite and get baired
slightly misspaced and gets dsmashed, not too bad though
6:05 recovering high enough to react to jumps
5:59 no jump, whiffs uptilt, not expecting fade away
5:58 tekk turnaround nair to get over the aerial, cool
not good to land on plat
recovers high, gets nair opportunity, pressures for stage
5:49 hard guess, is wrong
5:43 corners the shiek
5:41 spaces outside of fair but not in time to avoid needles 
fills space in front of shiek with bair so that she has to stay in corner
5:37 a couple close judgements
jumps in as sheik WDes in, can’t react to aerial
forces jump with upair, doesn’t ff with sheik so gets baired instead of a nasty punish
5:34 fills the jump arc with tekk nair
is slow to jump away because of missed uptilt
5:31 amsah thinks another nair, tekk delays
5:25 tekk hasn’t lost from this position
5:21 recognizes is late, gets grab
5:14 amsah reacts to empty land probably because of spacing
5:10 wants to get under bair but slightly misspaced
5:05 catches sheik’s fall
5:04 easy jump from ledge bair
5:00 empty jump to threaten followup then fair to hit shield or evasion
4:57 misses bair on another ledgejump
4:50 sitting in bad position, just wants to end it
4:34 ok there’s something lol

whiff punish, dash attack missed tech, flubbed recovery
shielddrop upair upair upair rest
vertical nair, uptilt rest
upsmash OoS, high %

Stocks Lost
upsmash rest punish, high%
misses randy fsmash read, faired at high%
This game looks way way better, he's using the space on PS so well that it looks like it favors puff.

- - -

It seems like Tekk’s primary strat is to stay spaced either directly above or horizontal to sheik’s jumps. His grounded game is not very present or successful.
He waits outside of sheik’s jumps and looks to whiff punish. If he uses enough to earn it, he will drift over sheik and then do a vertical nair to stuff her jump or crossup.
When out of position he jumps up. He’s not afraid to empty jump rather than commit too early or predictably.
He’s not afraid to look for hard reads, esp if it will land him an upair.
Amsah plays into this with lots of jumps and reluctance to walk forward, so it’s hard to say how much of this is anti-sheik and how much is anti-amsah.

Soft vs Druggedfox Analysis

Soft vs Druggedfox (puff sheik)

Game 1 FoD

8:00 nonneutral start puts puff in center, bairs to cover runoff fair
nairs in looking for nair(crouch) rest
sheik bounces before shield can shrink
7:55 sheik challenges vertical spacing, running under plat is good. Makes it harder on her and gives enough time for that bair.
7:54 upair prevents counterattack. Mixup. Good intro poke for information. Sheik jumps.
Vertical sheik is scary. Nair. Puff rolls.
7:52 nair would have caught startup of a grounded option maybe? Gets faired.
SDI out of the dsmash
7:50 more nair trades, soft is fishing.
resets to neutral
7:49 sheik shallow fakeout
7:47 punishes jump after needle landing, cool.
still too low for bair to combo but 2 hits is good.
7:45 really bad crossup, now reversed positions
7:42 crossup over shield gets naired
7:41 soft watching the spacing carefully
7:40 ooh reads the tilt? Probably actually a reaction to his own fall through the plat feeling slow.
does an extra DD so no punish.
7:38 gets caught with dash attack, sheik whiffs a grab, bad spacing so aerial but surprise so bad nair.
Sheik jumps OoS for vertical space. Soft fills it with fsmash.
7:32 second fsmash was even more cheesy, just grab
7:29 good DI off the throw that looked hard to catch.
7:26 soft punishes same descent pattern again
rest edgeguard
FoD plat gets the rest punish
7:14 sheik gets puff to jump then needles around the fall for damage and stage, needed to be patient and just shark for single hits, esp at this %.
7:11 FH nair, platform messes it up, FH for more mobility
7:09 good situation for empty land uptilt but doesn’t work. Was possible but hard to space.
pretty gross pound
now out of CC %
7:02 spaces outside of sheik’s aerials and kicks with her jump
the shield pressure is weird. Soft pauses so I think he thought drugged would look to avoid uptilt. Then they both saw nothing happening and decided to retreat to be safe.
Then soft jumps to corner drugged with FH nair again.
Unfortunately the nair isn’t ffed in time so it whiffs and instead of a probable nair rest sheik gets out.
6:59 tekk says to stay parallel but in this situation staying grounded and spaced like soft does seems better.
shields in reaction to jump, has to be needles or bair
spotdodges ftilt/grab
6:58 try to bait each other into committing to grab and soft ends up whiffing because drugged dtilts expecting a crouch lol
6:51 all of this is slightly misspaced
6:49 reverse uptilt won’t poke there, needed to turn uptilt
6:42 fakeout landing angle with nair gets a bit of space back
6:40 normally this fair is a jump read but it comes out after the jump
6:37 dj bair is to avoid possible tilt? Dunno, it is a nervous tempo step back.
fall through crouch, sees no grab, shields
gets grab, no platform on other side  for dthrow so backthrow
spaces to punish aggression from ledge but doesn’t take the punish
empty land was from too high up so telegraphed.
in bad position again
6:30 pound is high risk low reward
high risk options from the corner are actually pretty predictable because people are more likely to go for broke from a bad position.
6:26 takes center
forces double jump then punishes fall, gets the sick inner hitbox on strong fair so combo
6:24 3rd hit was slightly too late for strong but he calls out the double jump like a boss
and reads the on stage recovery, from here edgeguard is easy
6:15 ideally sing fsmash
6:08 FH nair again vs sheik moving at low %
combos to uptilt
forces shield, land, uptilt catches roll startup, rest
5:58 cool nair from shiek covering jump
5:57 nair loses to offensive option
5:54 needles were obv gonna hit dunno what to do there maybe just use normal getup inv
5:53 dunno why sheik backs off at 0, maybe afraid of light hit
5:52 bairs into the jump, tight timing
falls onto jump w/ nair, doesn’t combo, forced to shield but spotdodges probable grounded followup
drugged pivot jabs. probs not flub because 2 hits but not good choice here.
Buffered crouch earns rest when drugged grabs after.

grabs descent from plat, backthrow edgehog rest
forces double jump, combo with fair off stage then edgeguard
nair uptilt force shield uptilt roll startup rest v low %
crouch rests grab after CCing jab

Stocks Lost
rest punish
whiffs pound in from ledge

Clutch spacing when it counts. Esp situational spacing, moving small distances based on shiek’s momentary options.

Game 2 PS
8:00 AC bair rest right off the bat goodness gracious that worked out perfect.
7:55 damage after dthrow nair is for prioritizing hits over position
7:50 spaces far enough away that needles won’t hit then jumps over the potential arc as sheik falls. Very neat. I haven’t considered that before.
7:47 catches sheik overextending, both back away from scuffle, that gives soft stage, both challenge this and trade, soft’s high % pushes him back and a desperate pound to center is punished.
7:42 mashes grab after close whiff, backthrow, baits a reaction but spaces too close
drops stage with another bad pound
7:37 big overcommitment by sheik is dair grabbed
backthrow, fakeout, looks like drugged tried to option select with his angle is that even possible?
small scuffle after, ends with reading a grab and resting
7:23 fades way back to avoid bair, nice. Think drugged could safely go deep though.
7:18 another nair rest at low %, looks like drugged expected another fadeback
gets stage but djs aren’t good angle vs grounded sheik so has to back off
7:10 quick reaction by sheik from situation to get shield up
7:09 drugged pivot jabs again. I wonder why. Probably because he feels that the pivot introduces enough time for inconsistency for an evasive action so he tries to stuff it.
7:06 good spacing
and such a good WD away from sheild. Prioritizes position.
7:04 flub pushes soft back, ends up crouching a grab but another flub and no rest
6:59 spaces around aggression from ledge, bair, good patience to get second aerial
6:50 sheik can’t punish that angle. Would have to double jump and let puff get underneath her.
drugged reads the approach and charges upsmash
6:42 reads sheik’s jump and fairs under the fall
6:40 airdodge through ftilt followup? weird
drugged misspaces punish and gets baired
reactive spacing gets soft some bairs
feigns retreat then dairs getup
6:32 nice to use plat to quickly ff under falling sheik
6:28 recognizes he’s late and stalls over grounded counter
empty land grab fthrow
Misstimed fair, get’s hit out of it then jumps too close to shiek,
6:20 upair kills at top of mountain lol

AC nair rest at 0
crouch rest after missed grab
spaces around aggression from ledge, edgeguard
upair missed tech at high%

Stocks lost
falls onto an upsmash callout

Some monsterrrr punishes, goodness. Some overextension.

Game 3 PS

8:00 same AC nair but drugged jumps out haha
soft CCs a jab shieldpoke after needles, waits and dairs the followup action, only gets damage.
7:54 they both reset but sheik wins at that distance so soft presses but is too hasty
sheik has been expressly vertical so far
sheik jumps into a falling nair, uptilt, whiffed rest
7:44 pound punish on missed needles, no punish. Could rest or at least dair grab.
tries to trade but puff is slow
7:40 super high falling dar is fsmashed
7:37 puff is spacing a bit close but it gets her a juicy double bair. Easy rest edgeguard
7:24 spacing outside of sheik’s needles but hesitates too long to get direct punish on needles of the preventative nair after
7:22 should CC grab here I think.
7:18 drugged baited the approach hard.
7:16 takes center, uptilts to catch a run through but drugged waits until after
needles bad upair then gets dash attack off of no asdi down crouch and upairs crossup attempt
7:08 pound hits ‘cause WD couldn’t take sheik back far enough
waits for roll in, reads getup, upairs but sheik CCs
another upair keeps sheik in shield, reverse uptilt will not poke, crouches grab attempt, gets upsmash, easy rest techchase
6:54 too close to run out of needle range so has to shield, spotdodges the followup then crouches, sheik is nervous and shields
6:52 upairs to hit shield or jump, second upair is too slow should have just watched sheik whiff
6:49 WD away bair looks so good vs sheik bair on sheild
6:46 crouch rest but obv going to live, optimal I guess crouch grab upair combo
6:41 ooh smart airdodge after seeing drugged wait for tech
sheik’s dair covers 3/4 getup options
6:32 takes 30% pressing way too hard
they trade hit for hit for a while. Lots of % to take just so that sheik can’t charge needles.
6:07 doesn’t hold down after AC nair?
6:05 good airdodge, phew
6:03 don’t know what sheik can do after that fadeaway bair. Not enough range. She whiffs a jab but soft isn’t ready for punish.
6:02 godlike spacing
backthrow, forces getup
5:56 wow slick option coverage, that series of aerials covered like everything there was to do. It was shield grabbable but I don’t think on reaction after the first nair.
5:42 that grab isn’t real yet
5:35 yeah hanging too close
5:30 gets stage pretty heavily
slow to fair the jump but gets falling upair after
combos to rest, nice

WoP easy rest edgeguard
crouch upsmash rest techchase after uptilt on shiek’s shield
fair edgehog at high%
falling upairs behind sheik’s FH fall, rest

Stocks Lost
unsafe aerial approach from ledge is faired
really nasty rest punish against the tree
baired for recovering too low vs on ledge sheik

good conversions
more overextension
positioning is weird, getting milage off of odd things that I’m not sure I’m recognizing correctly. Nullifying a lot of sheik’s strengths with timely punishes and familiarity with what can happen next.

soft strats:
spam nair rest/uptilt at low % lol
spotdodge crouch after a hit on shield to avoid the jab/tilt, often converts to rest
spaces outside of fair range or if can’t punish jump directly goes over needle range
FH fair under her jump as she rises, catches sheik going up and starting to come down

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Hbox vs PPU Analysis

Hbox vs PPU (CEO)

Game 1 BF

8:00 non-neutral start, hbox avoids the issue
looks like he reads the dtilt based on WDes and no DD
not spaced so CC dtilt
runs to plat to avoid issue
7:56 sideBs into the DD area but marth shieldstops
7:52 spaced to far to punish land
repeatedly retreats to side platform to avoid threat of DD, looking to fall through onto lag
7:49 ftilt on reaction to jump (instead of preemptive dtilt), adaption
7:43 recognizes not enough time for clean punish and WDes out but second WD prevents punish
7:42 really good spacing on ground to avoid marth’s approaching threats
pretty bad spacing in the air after
7:34 ftilt is working too well
7:31 marth is too low for followup
7:29 pounds into DD range again but ppu has caught on to falling puff pattern
7:27 perfect range to FH bair vs not stationary marth
7:21 crouches to cover tracks, ppu rolls away granting stage
7:19 I think dash attack was a reaction to marth’s shield being up too far away so marth was going to leave it somehow.
goal from here is to keep marth in corner so hbox rolls out then pressures space with jump.
marth on outside and puff on inside of plat is perfect position
he just whiffs but keeps marth there until marth moves in
7:14 lol tries to swag but messes up
7:11 fair was to bait dtilt so he could get ledge for free
7:06 good to slip into spot under falling marth for grab
should be backthrow
don’t know why attmepts to grab ledge attack
7:01 jumps away from uptilt, fairs when he sees jump
7:00 perfect spot but bair is too early
on right side after he keeps trying to bait swings just outside of range but is slow to punish
6:50 unsafe crossup is grabbed
messes up the hbox edgeguard, doesn’t recognize marth’s early upB. Would be funny if ppu did that on purpose.
6:46 easy rest but hbox takes aerial (obv better)
6:40 marth’s movement makes regrab safe so hbox keeps taking it
takes given space on stage too
6:35 dunno why marth fairs
hbox WDes out to avoid double fair, goes to bair it but it didn’t happen
6:33 reads a swing out of the WD. Safe bet because of high% and marth can’t get anything off a grab. (interesting to note that dash grab out of WD is pretty much never going to happen)
fthrow for stage but marth is so low
bair was horrible idea so gets dtilted
doesn’t respect marth’s space gets faired
6:22 falls in looking to cut stage, marth gives a grab
doesn’t get to ledge in time
bairs ledgejump but good DI
prefers to let marth have ledge rather than take hits
6:15 prioritizes taking perfect position with bair threat
6:14 run up shield vs marth on ledge but slow to grab
ppu runs through
hbox goes to plat to avoid issue of approaching marth
6:08 shield is a bad reaction
6:04 FH is strong because of representing retreat to plat
falling bair will now catch a slightly slow marth
6:02 trying to bait a roll through again
5:58 gets it
 5:56 second attempt at that fair edgecancel edgeguard it looks terrible
should just let marth have ledge if he can’t get to it first
5:50 tempo required marth to shield after landing or get hit
hbox edgeguard
5:42 avoids inv vertically
gets a hit
WD out to avoid counterhit then chases, gets another. Good SH to get under and to landing.
5:39 FH bair covers hella options, falling bair was good but whiffs because of ff
ideally I think instead of FH bair you run forward a tiny amount and upair. Unsure.
5:35 note such precise spacing outside of marth’s threats but on the edge to pressure space (just as important as actual whiff punish that he’s just outside of since it will corner marth).
he feigns fading out then pounds marth’s approach. Very range dependent.
messes up CC
5:27 this pound is soooooo greedy and soooo lucky
good techchase
shitty ass edgeguard
5:16 shields another fair, gets lucky and crouch rest
5:08 avoids inv by going vertical
slightly misspaces so gets faired
nair after has too much warning and puts him at bad spacing
doesn’t like position so takes time coming down
4:59 crouch is def for grab but sideB works too, shield is bad reaction, fsmash or rest of something
4:57 FH to corner of plat is strong position
4:53 hbox has represented gading back enough that close upair is strong
4:52 shitty upair
4:48 WL is safe because of marth’s range
4:47 not fast enough to shield but tried
4:43 dair better option than bair there but messes up
WD away to safely establish corner pressure
repeat of FH bair pressure until something is gifted

fthrow to extended edgeguard at high%
bairs landing spot, hbox edgeguard
crouch rest in the corner
dash attack whiffed fsmash, highish %

Stocks lost
falls into fair expecting dash back, high %

Game 2 YS

8:00 both whiff, hbox assumes outside of range position to start
YS is tricky because you are always pretty close to marth and die way eariler. However it is also a boon because marth’s horizontal space is always restricted.
Hbox is just staying safe and watching ppu move
7:55 gets a whiff punish off of FH next to plat
great spacing after hit on shield
7:53 FH bair lets him react to marth’s position since edge of yoshis is relatively close
7:52 too unsure so he resets to side plat then falls for center to challenge shallow dash forward
SH bair because he thinks it will combo but not yet
7:50 spaces out to keep safe and gets grab on marth trying to roll sneakily through an overextension that didn’t happen.
7:48 Tekk would FH waveland regrab/rest because tekk is a god.
7:47 smart spotdodge to avoid upair
goal is not not let marth slip past
7:43 good crouch, horrible grab
7:41 jump up and away from marth’s range then down when invited
sick grab
great timing awareness in edgeguard
7:33 avoids inv vertically
7:31 shitty nair
7:27 same shitty nair
7:25 edgecancel turns meh angle into a good one
combos to grab, upthrow for position. I think dthrow is better there, not positive though
7:22 threatens to punish no jump, marth has to swing to protect, leaves himself open for whiff punish
7:20 tries to shield poke but doesn’t fall low enough, would have been juicy
7:19 note how as falling he prioritizes stage position over possibly trading aerials
7:18 FH bair arc covers whole stage so he does that over SH
very fast reaction to WD to avoid fsmash
7:16 dair doesn’t combo to grab because he doesn’t connect with feet at all. Second time this set.
I think he shields based on how far marth dashed away.
tries to whiff punish but doesn’t recognize the nair will AC. Almost dies.
7:10 comes down too early because he’s nervous about running out of jumps.
7:08 def should have died
7:06 shitty nair but marth jumps into it
7:04 vertical recovery, slips in with dair, slow to grab, crouches the obv counter attack, looking for a grab but ppu sideBs
7:01 is nervous about that exchange so he retreats too far and messes his spacing up
6:58 vertical recovery
6:52 vertical recovery
6:50 should have slipped to ledge when marth jumped to top plat height. You’re looking for marth to overextend and give you the time/space to land somewhere.
6:44 takes center, cuts off stage as marth runs
6:42 assumes corner pressure with FH position
6:38 should let go fair but gets up, probably mistake
6:36 spaces around getup and grabs, great.
6:31 unfortunately in a bad position
tries luck with nair again, nope.
6:28 it’s ok if fair whiffs it makes marth back off a bit.
6:27 good grab but slightly too early, hbox does that sometimes.
fsmash on reaction to spotdodge
6:21 this time goes very high to encourage marth to jump, slips into good horizontal postition
6:19 hits shield low, WD out then look to whiff punish or force back
FH bair to take stage, fades back for confidence, repeat WD away
but this time marth expects the FH bair so hbox just grabs him instead. CONDITIONING
upthrow because dthrow would go offstage and deny followup
6:14 really good spacing
WD in place to stop himself from giving up stage with overextension, marth is slow, bair.
spaces back to corner position, recognizes shield and grabs again, fthrow to maintain stage.
I think backthrow would get techchase on behind plat.
6:07 overextends and gets hit with obv dair
but good spacing after around falling fair, tuns in to take stage, stops to avoid fair, pressure.
6:03 hesitates, doesn’t WD away so is faired
marth keeps ledgejumpng, pity to see that.
5:54 hbox sees that he’s a little too slow to get grab so he just does a move
then he’s a little slow to get pressure without risk of trade/getting poked so he backs off and crouches
5:51 rest
ooh crazy regrab for stage position, misses pivot tipper looks like.
hbox just stays out of range and waits for endl ag to let him back
5:47 reacts to the roll easily
5:44 second time he’s landed on plat to get inv at right time, that’s neat.
5:37 this time marth is too high to react to the nair
hbox wants to grab but thinks it will be slow so he tries to catch any OoS movement with jabs
ppu is totally defensive OoS so he can do this without fear
5:34 same sort of exchange. PPU won’t challenge it so he gets away with jabs and a free grab
5:32 that was a weird and hard edgeguard to get, had to delay the fair
5:30 just looking for a chance to get back, trying to encourage marth to go up
5:22 safe on side plat, stalls for just too long
shields because grab won’t do anything?
5:21 needed to SH to hit but FH makes marth dash away
5:19 attempted edgecancel
oh so scary shieldbreaker
5:15 hbox used to do this pound a lot more it banks on marth leaving his jump empty for too long  but marths are better about protecting the right timing how
5:11 catches the feet lol
bad aerial mobility control drops edgeguard
bad spacing gets him uptilted
4:59 takes middle, catches weird roll
tries to do the same fair edgeguard instead of taking stage. Is eager to finish.
4:53 takes great side plat poition but jumps off right away, definitely nerves.
lol decides to fish for a dair upsmash and it’s given to him

tomahawk grab backthrow hbox edgeguard
fsmash on reaction to spotdodge after whiffed grab scuffle
bairs a roll at high %
dair upsmash at high %

Stocks Lost
gets caught running out of jumps recovering above marth, high%
uptilted off bad spacing

when marth has stage advantage then hbox retreats to side platform until marth gives him a reason to leave. In order to challenge marth has to jump or walk up empty, both are easily punished or avoided.

When in the middle of the stage hbox spaces outside of marth's threat ranges but too far away to whiff punish directly. HOWEVER he will fall with an aerial in order to force marth to shield or dash back. He'll fade back in order to keep the fall safe. His goal when in the middle of the stage is NOT to whiff punish but to force marth to the corner where whiff punishing is more feasible. This methodology is esp good because it makes tomahawk grabs really strong after a game or so.

once marth is in the corner he uses a lottt of FH bairs to keep him there, aiming for peak of the jump just on the inside of the side platform.

if marth whiffs something there he can't dash back so it's more a more forgiving punish. He either gets hit or shields and you just WD away and start FH pressure over again.

Soft vs Articanus Analysis

Soft vs Articanus

Game 1 FD

I don’t like FD myself because of no platforms so I feel like I get infinite edgeguarded from every part of the stage.

8:00 turn around fair after 2 zoning bairs. Bair would have hit too. It was on marth running in to punish land slow, I think. No followup after CC. Dunno what you can do to marth at 0.
7:55 marth tries to come down over a puff SH. Doesn’t work that’s so telegraphed. Gets his shield up in time for the bair. That seems to be a theme in this MU. Lots of swings are difficult to punish directly without perrrrfect spacing so he gets to shield a lot. Actually at low % I would bank on that and just grab. They love to shield and aerials don’t do anything for a bit so grab dthrow techchase/upthrow aerials.
Falling upair after but marth just moves out. I think either puff should practice poking a full shield with upair or stop doing it because it’s a huge waste of time the way we use it like that right there.
Wow marth whiffs that grab by a mile. Misspaced dair. jump away from land gets grabbed which is a little odd. Means he overshot the grab. Marth prioritizes combo over tipper because of %, puff jumps out.
7:49 ff pound is surprising and more likely because marth doesn’t want to run to the edge of the stage there.
Techchase is short, pressures shield with FH AC nair. shield grab was a little late and gets rested off a read. Had to frame by frame to verify it wasn’t a poke lol.
7:43 smart rest punish but soft recognizes and gets the DI, stalls so that he doesn’t give marth free hits, goes over
7:38 starts upair too late so landing lag gets baired, good jump out of hitstun avoids grab
7:35 recognizes potential bait and backs off rather than fall with bair then immediately jumps
reads grab attempt, dair punish but uptilt doesn’t combo this low. i think it starts at about 25.
no follow up on the grab, marth is cornered but bair whiffs, lucky duck under the grab but late reactions (which is understandable because a late reaction there is a normal reaction elsewhere lol) gets grabbed. DIs out again.
7:25 marth uses his ample real estate but is a little slow so soft can jump back, crosses marth up again. bair doesn’t have enough hitstun to combo, good DI out of fairs
7:21 marth ducks under FH bair and gets upaired because he’s not ready to move so soon. Obviously going to hit the ground based on holding down, soft’s brain keeps thinking marth is higher % than he is.
7:19 was mayyyybe a rest but land grab is safer because marth is afraid
that dair is a marth player habit so you can bait it
7:16 soft tries to preemptively rest a grab that doesn’t happen. That’s a break in marth’s pattern though. Poor DI off the throw.
7:06 soft uses inv to cut off half the stage and restrict DD, marth takes to ledge which is fine.
run up shield then roll right because he wants stage. Soft is ready, nairs (bad reward) but marth holds down. Tries to dair for some reason, puff gets a bair. Missed tech. Bad reaction (you could just run up and crouch next to him) and puff gets hit with attack. Has to give stage back.                    
7:02 Marth dtilts but recognizes he has enough time to DD grab a FH bair from puff.
stalls high, marth gives puff center
FH bair corners marth, FH nair in response (why?)
6:54 dash attacks into marth’s DD now that it is pinched so small
let go regrab edgeguard
6:47 waits for too long on the ground, dtilted, hangs out of the way, marth falls back farther than puff can and fsmashes
6:42 dsmashed going for greedy ledgegrab, that’s an early death
6:33 not sure why the empty land spaced out. Low bair crouch is better if no intent to grab/uptilt.
6:34 puff doesn’t like spacing on descent to spaces out enough to aerial an incoming grab but marth shffls instead.
6:31 spotdodges a grab that was cool. punish whiffs. Attemps to read away movement OoS based on previous history. Accurate but marth was quick. Late upair would have connected, early upair maybe covered still option via head poke
not sure what dair was for, maybe to cover a spotdodge. Marth runs through and fsmashes. When marths run through me I roll into them because I hate that shit and will rest them to get them to stop.
6:26 marth sees high, doesn’t expect sudden descent
puff’s bair whiffs the dj (upair but that is a weird spot)
attempts to premptively rest the grab. Input is late and whiffs. That’s a lot of reads on grab in a row.
Shieldbreaker is techable.
6:14 takes center then takes a lot of stage with still inv nair. Cool.
6:12 random fsmash
bad pound
6:10 CC grab
stays around to long gets grabbed
6:04 takes center, jumps for the rest of the stage (seems like what makes a land good or bad is the timing of marth’s dash back, which is effectively random, which sucks). Doesn’t overextend but does unsafe uptilt that gets grabbed
6:00 goes straight to center, jumps in, marth pins himself but CC dsmashes, goes for a kill with another but is really slow. That’s several “random” smashes in a row, he wants to close the match out.
punishes with bair (would upair have gotten hit from the bottom? probs)
super super baits the roll, marth tilts shield up to avoid poke
5:52 pretty questionable dash attack
CC the side B, grab
5:46 do not like grabbing ledge there, gives up stage for no reason
marth just uses the stage presence to avoid puff’s hits and punish
5:35 drops the edgeguard hard
5:30 jumps away, then reads jump and grabs,
5:19 crazy scary dair

AC nair crouch rest
restrict DD then dash attack into it, edgeguard
grab fthrow edgeguard

Stocks Lost
misses a raw rest read on grab that is actually a run through
called out with dsmash grabbing ledge
misses a raw rest read on grab that was a grab lol
dair is whiff punished grab fair high %

some bad DI, some high risk high reward plays, some high risk low reward aerials

Game 2 FoD
8:00 FH nair predictive uptilts grab attempt, forces shield, marth jumps into upair, easy techase rest but messes up waveland (dunno why waveland at all)
7:54 upair forces marth off, not great, marth runs to center
soft jumps to plat, waits
7:52 bair whiffs and marth happens to jump in then, should have waited
goes high then back to plat
marth is hanging back looking for low bair but FHs recognizing high stalling jumps (no need to do those)
7:43 poor spacing
7:41 good empty land grab
barely avoids the dair. I think the fair could have comboed if input earlier, not sure
7:37 soft recognizes not enough time for direct punish so feigns bair and then grabs
bair beats nair from ledge I don’t know why marths do that, combos with turn around fair
marth was really high so that is an awkward edgeguard, needed to not go out for last hit but marth guesses badly and gets thrown
they both make wonky decisions and marth dies
7:20 puff goes high to avoid inv marth chases puff goes around for bair, granted a 2nd, CC dsmash. Def should anticipate that.
7:17 goes to side plat but it’s low so goes high to watch for openings
7:13 late reaction from marth, gets baired. I probs would have tried uptilt after.
reacts to jump OoS with upair, was weird % range where doesn’t combo to upair. I need to see if that combos to rest because that happens out of dthrow a lot.
7:11 rising crossup on shield isn’t safe
7:09 barrrely lands that nair, was risky. grab? dtilt lol. Fair after so that’s ok. Funny.
I would have run up shielded after but soft is ok with stage, messes up punish.
7:04 crazy spacing
hbox edgeguard
6:55 recovers high
barely whiffs bair off side plat, goes to empty land punish again but marth grabs early, ideally crossup first
bad DI off the throw
6:43 intercepts marth’s path with dair. Soft keeps doing normally higher risk aerials with inv, which is neat. Tries to turn around uptilt but that’s not close to a combo. Even grab isn’t real at 0.
hangs around up high like armada’s peach
eventually guesses wrong with pound gets faired
6:38 dair from ledge really good there but crossup instead of combo to grab
predicts the timing of the WD wrong so loses stage but that’s a cool scenerio because FH bair that whiffs still burned enough shield that marth needed to twitch in some way or get poked.
good marth DD to get fairs, puff needs to fake approaches
6:25 I don’t like that nair because it’s so easy to beat and god has to personally grant you a followup if it hits
6:21 marth slips up gets baired. low% but doesn’t press down so eats another
soft either flubs or changes his mind and marth yolos a dsmash lol bair was suboptimal could have rested. After knockdown should have stayed grounded. rest OoS or dash attack bounce.
6:15 that dair is so scary, marth waits out the spotdodge probably accidentally
looks like puff jumped into the fsmash not anticipating the WD. whoops.
6:07 waits for something from marth, marth runs through which lets bair do a lot. Slow to grab ledge which lets fair happen. Actually a FH around it would have been best. UpB after was dsmashable or bair.
2 hbox edgeguards, stock.
5:49 slow to get out of marth’s path, goes high
marth can’t follow up off upair, gets faired, then juicy uptilt because low %, missed rest
5:41 kind of meh risk good reward pound but I think there it made sense for marth to dash back
5:38 dash grab barely whiffs, good reaction rest

empty land grab to edgeguard
spaces around fsmash, bair to hbox edgeguard
fall from plat with bair then extended edgeguard
crouch rest on misspaced grab

Stocks lost
empty land is grabbed, bad DI off of throw
whiffs a dair recovering, grab fsmash

Game 5
7:53 SH in DJ away to plat tests marth’s active-ness, marth backs away so next nair is more safe
7:50 really odd exchange, def should have just crouched
wtf is marth doing, so many wonky punishes this set
have to look up the frame data on reacting to marth’s throws. I think you just DI down and then rotate with the throw. Hard to tell what’s reaction and what’s prediction in practice.
7:44 risky pound, don’t think it had good reward either. Need to know based on %s.
7:40 WL off bair would have hit dash in. The fake out going up and then down just took time so eventual bair whiffs.
7:38 dunno what optimal punish is there. uptilt is so good if lands but very dependent on a bad opponent.
7:37 I think that was a good place to empty land. Why? Because he’s spaced far enough away to dash away from bair, in that marth DD spot and will run out of stage. Soft challenges both aggro and passive by AC uptilt but startup is poked. I think Hbox would have AC WDed just in case. Then we do the SH upair.
7:35 FH is great because lets puff react to marth, meh CC.
7:31 I do that nair too but I don’t like it ever. No reward. Just wait a moment.
7:27 marth’s SH makes fall to side safe.
7:26 should WL to plat then watch.
7:24 nair is a bait? Almost. I think SH bair dj bair/upair would combo there. SH bair has better range.
7:22 ledgegrab was greedy. High recovery is so much better vs marth ‘cause he has to commit to jump.
7:16 backthrow
but I guess he’s got the read on the habit dair so he can combo to rest.
7:09 double stick DI
7:04 I think there if puff dips low then marth either whiffs a dtilt and gets baired OR crouches and then pound trades with dtilt.
7:03 WD away beats roll and dair. Don’t think either was likely. Less mobile at low %.
6:58 good going up to let marth whiff, bad
6:57 upair
6:53 lol just jump away
6:47 great upair, whiffs rest
6:41 bair wasn’t late as possible so it wasn’t as deep as possible. There is no benefit to an late-ish bair over a late as possible bair.
good reactive FHs after.
6:36 upair
6:31 potential rest.
bad DI off the throw
6:26 obv no reason ever to upsmash. Rest.
6:24 lol maybe descending pound instead of bair on plat
I bet a second jab then fsmash would have broken shield
6:21 another rest. Hbox edgeguard gets it anyway.
6:05 potential crouch rest after dair because he grabs habitually
6:03 repeat, looks like AC nair uptilt is a soft tactic from center. (maybe pound is actually good there?)
6:00 ?
5:57 good positioning but a little slow off the plat
5:55 obv dair again, plus I dunno why upthrow > dthrow there.
5:54 reads the grab (because of run-through) but too early. Should probs spotdodge. Same reward less risk.
5:29 good pressure but bair has bad reward. Upair.
Too many scuffles this stock. Trading damage weird situation to situation is a bad gameplan.
5:16 rest
5:09 wow godlike shield
5:04 there was time to crossup bair
4:35 oh goodness, should just uptilt lol
4:23 good grab
4:21 this kind of whiffed bair is bad spacing.
4:18 marths do this SH fair crossup often enough I think we should practice punishing reactively with upair or something.
4:08 rest and a half
4:03 fsmash too high risk for little precedent read. Would have gotten another grab.
sing lol
3:38 techchase rest

upair rests dair read off of upthrow
crouch fsmash grab, hbox edgeguard
high %, dash attack into DD
marth recovers badly, gives free edgegrab

Stocks lost
Gets scared and fsmash shieldpoke
Missed rest, shieldbreaker at high%
Missed rest, shieldbreaker at high%

neutral tempo (both free to move) guidelines(?)

* when marth is very close be patient and reestablish position outside of swing. Your challenges can be DDed around or stuffed too easily to make big commitments you can’t take back.
* when at tipper range stay low and reactive.
* when marth is really far away look to either take center or jump to plat as he comes in so that he has to jump to try to get you, if he stays empty or whiffs you come down with poke/punish
* when at “marth will DD out of SH bair” range FH, fall reactively, try to take stage
* when marth is cornered SH upair his available stage. Look to land at mid platform.

more niche:
* when marth is running at you and gives up the meat of his dash back then SH bair dj

FH is nice because he can't DD around it for free

Will probably do set 2 later because this is fun to watch.

so maybe the distinction in your head is "can he dash dance around SH? If yes FH, if no, SH bair."

Abu vs The Moon Analysis

Abu vs The Moon

Game 1 BF
8:00 non-neutral start
WD out to avoid fair, fadeback isn’t full so bair whiffs
unsure movement, both players waiting for opening, abu avoids fair by fading out last moment
then WD out to avoid second fair, I would have gotten hit for sure. Bair is CCed but no punish, second bair. Shield is clearly up for 3rd because low%. Not sure what optimal punish is, maybe empty land grab. Abu prioritizes stage.
7:54 WD away from obvious aggression. Marth FH here is interesting because it gives him a lot of option but his legs are vulnerable. Abu respects ff fair and lets the moon down but that much retreat wasn’t necessary. He gets faired for jumping in from too far away.
7:51 Moon WDes out of dtilt when it whiffs, conservatve
follow up bair whiffs and abu takes lots of damage from bad DI. I don’t like trying to punish marth dtilt OoS when not right on top of him, seems like he wins all the time, prefer WD away.
7:45 moon messes up movement and abu touches ground, shields, turns his back, DD, whiff, WD away from dash grab. Roll is probably misclick bair.
7:42 that was actually a rest. You can duck under marth’s nair easy. AC can’t hit crouching puff and there he had time before the ff. Don’t know what made the moon do that.
7:41 the moon dairs. Important to note that he’s willing to do that when puff is on him.
jumps into a bair. Abu gives up too much stage to follow up again and gets faired.
7:37 stalling high waiting for marth to commit time to a jump/retreat so puff regains stage.
7:32 moon isn’t ready for bair but CC dtilts it. Really important to note this consistent reaction. Means that until he’s out of CC you have to super space it unless you hit him in the air.
7:29 gets grabbed out of a land. I would have rolled in after the whiff, make marth work for it.
missed pivot fsmash, abu sneaks back, moon recognizes % and sideB uptilts.
moon in general has shown competence in the MU. Plans are based on %, not over-extending, awareness of puff’s options. He’s ok with letting puff touch the ground and keeping center stage so he can push her off again.
7:18 dtilts the land again. Almost like how armada’s fox uses it. I don’t know why it lands though it’d be weird if that shield poked.
7:15, moon sniffs the approach and fsmash trades for the kill.
7:07 good shield, no need for WD so no grab but ducks the grab punish
weird rest punish
6:59 wow that nair gets a grab but I was waiting for moon to fair out
should be dthrow FH techchase rest. Abu SHs so no punish, second upair could have poked if faded further away, gets faired
6:53 abu is afraid of no stage so he rolls through after moon dashes forward but moon waits it out but then messes up punish
6:53 maybe a rest (or nair grab) bair gets abu 12% and stage
I really dislike the FH after. Marth isn’t high enough so if just puts you in danger.
6:47 barely sneaks through
leaving self empty and turn around after marth runs under is good
6:44 after they both whiff that’s a FH upar but late reaction
marth sees the crossup and nairs OoS which is again an upair
6:38 fair whiffs because it was FH DJ fair instead of SH
6:36 bair probably would connect if abu stayed low and close instead of outside of dtilt spacing
late OoS after dtilt, the moon is ok with just holding center, not looking to press an advantage
6:34 abu goes to side platform instead of pressing for stage here. That’s 2015 hbox. But he gives up his spot right away I don’t know why.
The moon gives him center right after though.
looool the staredown at that bair
6:29 no need to shield after CC. missed opportunity. Moon prioritizes getting back to center, Abu catches him not shielding with upair.
6:25 wow great anticipation of the dair but whiffs the punish
6:22 trades probably reading a second dtilt should have gone low not high after.
uses marth’s endlag to get back with bair
6:15 that was a tricky fsmash
sideB nicks jump, uptilt
6:08 whiffs bair on return, jumps with run but misspaces dair. Marth spotdodges around a potential late grab, I would have done the same dair after but shielded because it makes sense for marth to aeiral out of that spot. Maybe ideally you WD through then watch what he does, looking for roll away.
6:02 I think that is giving marth in the air too much space/respect.
bad spacing vs nair after
5:59 why does that dtilt hit? is abu tilting his shield or something? Weird and dumb.
the grab after is smart. Probably should have just run to the platform. That’s just a bad position for puff to try to play neutral.
5:48 Idk why you would do that fsmash. That was an awkward spacing to punish OoS so easiest is upsmash but that fsmash wasn’t going to work ever. 0/10 times.
The DI in the throw is always down and away (after 0). It’s a really hard reaction though.
5:34 marth predicts the aerial timing so he gets a nair
5:32 I do not like puff holding in there.
the moon makes puff go too low threatening dair, abu runs out of jumps because he’s afraid to pound. pounding is ok though because if you get tilted you can DI it up for extra chances. There was one clear DJ grab ledge in the middle of all that and at least one pound.

crouch rest grab punish after missed grab

Stocks Lost:
preemptive bair gets fsmashed
jumps into sideB uptilt
WD fsmash OoS gets shielded grabbed tipper
gets funneled downward and uses too many jumps recovering.

Two big observations
* You can’t keep marth honest and mix up aerial timings/empty lands/etc if you always act first. If marth is able to just stand still and wait for you to twitch then he doesn’t have to respect you as much. There were lots of opportunities. Moon definitely abused being patient better. Just thinking about it I don’t know what marth’s incentive is if he’s in the lead/has stage. I think it’s really position dependent so you’d probably have to watch the match back and look for positions that require marth to move so that you can put yourself in those spots in the future.
* When stuck under the platform just jump onto it. That’s a horrible horrible position to be vs marth because marth has ample ample dash dance space behind him and you can’t back up any more (because his sword is one of the few things in the game that can easily pressure you when you’re off stage).

Soft’s obs:
"abu is doing a lot of preemptive aerials to marth
which beats marth trying to threaten puff and take space with just his movement
or a marth that is preemptively aerialing
but moon is waiting on abu
and reacting
it becomes really easy for him because abu attacks from too far away most of the time
so he can either react with an aerial or just shield it
an example is in 1:35 of the video
abu attacks from too far away and the moon just shields it
and gets a side b but it looks like he could have gotten a lot more
either way by attacking from a react-able distance moon gets to play really safe and not risk much but get a lot of reward
at 15:42 here
I am in a very similar situation where I am too far to attack so I empty hop
to bait him to do something
then I get to punish him"

Game 2 DL
8:00 whiff punish gets CC naired. Need to look for % appropriate followups if they exist
Hbox tries to space very close then grab or backs off and looks for next opportunity
abu ends up taking 40 from poor DI off that
small position conversions to hits continue for a while
7:43 lol abu goes right back but does a good job spacing incrementally in this time
7:37 slow reaction
7:35 jump in was weird I don’t know why marth would dash back which is the only thing it would beat
7:30 good WD away from grab but shitty punish choice
upair should have been bair
7:27 stalls high then takes center
7:23 I don’t like that crossup. was a shieldgrab. Maybe crossup was good if puff like uptilts?
7:22 marth intentionally trades which is eh
7:20 marth predicts no jump so grabs.
7:14 good fadeback then second bair
should land run up after knockdown. Shield was anticipating getup attack but you can prompt that better and double tap A option select vs normal getup.
late bair gets naired.
7:06 WD grab
7:04 wowww did he just react to CC with dtilt? Good roll out of situation. Could have punished but that’s a quick reaction from that no warning spot.
Shield is too low to hold it, need to FH to plat I think.
6:56 bad spacing
6:46 slightly misspaced
good wait for twitch after
good shield on reaction to the nair
no OoS punish. You have to do sommmething.
6:41 obv fair needed to bait it out or come from lower
6:36 that was a scary ass fsmash. Moon looks like he’s studied the MU.
6:34 that’s the second time abu shields then rolls after CCing sideB instead of punishing.
dair pokes but abu wasn’t ready for his move to work.
no edgeguard.
good FH spacing around nair
attempts hbox edgeguard but grabs ledge too early
6:08 grab
5:55 need to learn best OoS punish vs nair. I think it’d be dair OoS. It’s only -1 but marths are always immobile after.
abu’s grab is baited hard
5:48 upsmash was too late to work gets faired
upsmash at 197 lol
bair is so stale that it’s an issue.
5:30 coming back low was good but facing away in shield puts him in a bad spot
5:26 bad nair
it’s easier to come back high or low if you go really high then choose because it takes puff so long to jump up
5:23 bad shield pins abu
just keeps putting himself in the corner afraid of marth’s space
4:56 like why is he moving bck now that he’s finally in center?
marth just walks up and kills him
4:47 juggles well but lets marth get through shielding instead of falling
lots of flubby movement
4:22 moon is happy to trade hits with the whole stage behind him and a stock up
smells abu being nervous and empty hop grabs
4:14 second upair too slow
abu’s been shielding every time he lands so moon just grabs him raw
4:04 bair punish was late so trades
3:59 dair grab from ledge is good, DI grants bair
3:50 good upair
3:48 don’t know why dropped shield it was good posiiton
3:42 another shield poke? I’m gonna have to look that up. Maybe the middle hitbox has priority or something.
abu is at high enough % and uses enough jumps the moon can just meet him
3:30 retreats so far away
3:25 bad spacing after such high nair, eats fairs, poor DI, ken combo

upsmash at 197 lol
dair grab backthrow bair

Stocks Lost
spaces too close to land, gets uptilted
WD forward is fsmashed at high %
marth jumps out and fairs stall jumps
bad DI off fair string, ken combo

rest of the set is kind of more of the same so don't want to do it right now.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

I think that melee players on the whole perpetuate fundamental errors of understanding that create massive stumbling blocks in both conceptualizing and gameplay.
Among these:
* Option vs Option as overly important (false: where/when trumps what every time)
* Neutral is a valuable concept (false: Position is a valuable concept)
* Fundamentals exist (false: fundamentals are useless generalizations)
* Methodology of first things first (false: the end is important, the means is the means. Combo trees that don't end with a stock can be uprooted.)

Specific and verifiable information is the most valuable. Generalizations are at best misleading and at worst actively harmful. Identifying and solving for specific problems is the only alternative to "learning through osmosis."


Puff Techtraps

In melee, in order to tech you must have digitally pressed L/R within 20f before hitting the ground (see: meleemechanics video). After every digital L/R input (including shielding) the game registers a 40f downtime. If you press L/R again within these 40f then you will not tech and the 40f downtime will be refreshed. This is designed to harshly punish mashing tech inputs.

A techtrap is a method of exploiting this downtime to ensure that a second tech is not possible.
Jigglypuff’s upthrow upair under platforms is her most recognizable techtrap. Should a fast faller attempt to tech the upthrow then the upair’s low KB will delay the ground collision just enough that he will still be in tech downtime and thus unable to tech when he hits the platform, then you rest him. In order to tech the upair the spacie must choose to not tech the upthrow. Naturally, this leaves Jigglypuff with the option to simply not upair and to rest the resulting missed tech on upthrow. In this way techtraps at a high level are a mixup.

In order to eliminate false techtraps an intelligent player will buffer the first tech early and input the second tech late. Most people do this intuitively. Executed well this minimizes the trap timing to 20f. For a late techtrap to be “real” the hit must connect as closely as possible to the ground collision without it occurring and opponent must then collide with the ground within 20f of the original timing (realistically I think that you can confidently estimate for 30f before your gamble on their imperfect execution gets testy).

LATE TECHTRAPS on ffers include (% before hit, approximate)
uptilt, 9-15%
upsmash at 15%
dash attack ~30-60%
bair ~35-60%

you can punish people for inputting techs early by timing your hit early. This is where techtraps get wonky and interesting. If you hit someone earlier (at about 15-20f before they hit the ground) then it will eat up their tech input (they won’t be hitting the ground within 20f) and it makes your techtraps more reliable over a greater % range by virtue of having a full 40f of downtime. This is made even more lenient because you can use hitlag frames as a window to cover later timings (this is exactly why upsmash works well in practice). Basically early techtraps are superior to late techtraps in that they have the same weakness (they lose to no tech input) but work over wider windows.

EARLY TECHTRAPS on ffers include (% before hit, approximate)
uptilt, 9-30%
upsmash at 15-30%
dash attack ~30-70%
bair ~35-80%

Note that some of these last longer than you could possibly follow up.
Note too that you can combo to rest instead of waiting for the tech trap to play out and then jab reset resting. This is all relatively situational but it’s cool that once more melee aligns itself into an elegant system.
This is an unlikely mixup compared to simply not teching but should an opponent attempt to counter your early techtraps by delaying his input (you can usually hear it from their controller) then you should just delay your hits.

Niche funny thing: Because shielding activates tech downtime for 40f Puff’s fthrow/bthrow on spacies will reliably techtrap under 40% if you grab as the shield comes up but they will go far enough from the throw that you’re not going to be able to get there to jab. There are DI dependent setups to get a platform techchase from fthrow on floaties with fthrow. This is more practical with other characters that have fast throws (ex: Marth’s dthrow).

Monday, November 30, 2015


I've been thinking a bit about the way that jigglypuff is played. I guess in spirit this is a followup post to the Questions for Puff Mains to Consider post having had more time to consider and experiment.

1st posit:
By the data, Jigglypuff can barely be considered viable.
As is, this character sucks (or at least Jigglypuff players do, and what is the difference?) Disregarding public opinion and looking instead at Jigglypuff’s broader tournament success she is borderline unviable. While it’s easy to dismiss the claim with appeals to a small sample size that shrinks dramatically the more stringently you judge by skill, I think that such an appeal would be backwards. Melee has a wonderful built-in and objective feedback mechanic called the results screen. Every win and loss is reflective of two players’ decisions. Every result is earned. If you don’t make it out of pools it’s because your holistic gameplan wasn’t good enough to make it out of pools. If you get 9th at a regional that means that your holistic gameplan was not good enough to get top 8. If you can’t break into top 100 then your holistic gameplan is not good enough to get top 100. Jigglypuff players have very underwhelming results that reflect very underwhelming gameplans. Her “meta” as widely understood simply hasn’t been able to support widespread success.

So what's holding (your) puff back?

In order to dramatically change (your) Jigglypuff’s results, you must dramatically change your gameplan.

For many Puff players, the first and easiest methodology is to focus on execution. Every missed input is a missed opportunity. Jigglypuff’s success depends on taking advantage of small opportunities. Missing them forfeits success. In the same vein, every dropped or suboptimal punish is a missed opportunity. Jigglypuff has a number of weaknesses, but her punish game is not among them. Yet Jigglypuff players, with few exceptions, have shitty ass punish games.

* Where are your flowcharts? Do you know what to do vs what DI in even the most common scenarios?
Falcons have been doing this shit since before Scar was considered a good player. How can you expect yourself to execute punishes if you are counting on blind luck to even identify what they are? How are you using your playtime? Are you playing smart or are you playing hard? One of those is going to cause improvement, the other will cause you to stagnate. Figure out your character’s flowcharts. 20xx exists in addition to youtube, there’s no excuse for ignorance. If this is too hard for you then you've located the essence of your limitation.

* Where do your punishes start? What hits are feasible to land in what situations? Are you playing in a way to enable your punish game or are you simply waiting for your opponent to hand them to you? They might not be so nice. What then?

This brings about a second line of thinking that’s a little bit less straightforward.

Root Optimization

I like 20GX not because they are optimizing falcon's punishes (that can be taken for granted) but because at the very beginning Gravy looked at Captain Falcon's unique properties and rebuilt his whole gameplan/attitude from the ground up. It's similar because the stuff that works still works but they make different decisions than Darkrain does because they’ve looked for situational and character-specific properties (ex: full analog control from any position via pivots) then started rebuilding everything from there. The result is a nuanced playstyle rich in tactics and strategies that all of the best falcon players are pulling from.

If we operate under the assumption that more of the same will only produce more of the same results then it’s obvious that Jigglypuff can benefit from a similar kind of rebuilding. In order to arrive at the best gameplan, Puff’s strategies need to some degree to be rebuilt after examining her core advantages, many of which are unique and unintuitive to the rest of the cast.

Off the top of my head puff's biggest strength (other than being immune to some things like combos or stage control) is her insane aerial mobility. You have enough control to make a decision, change your mind, then change your mind again. That's ridiculous.
A problem is that your horizontal mobility is sort of on a timer. You are only relevant for as long as you are a) in the air and b) at the correct height, meaning that you have to jump at the right time and depending on the situation might not be actively threatening anything in the time between jumps. Most often this problem is softened (but not eliminated) by using the threat of bair to purchase enough space to land/double jump. In the worst cases this strat results in predictable/exploitable patterns that give up stage control/relevancy. It loses harshly to run up shield and thus depends heavily on (largely reactable) empty land grabs to remain even decent. Alternatively, I propose that the timer problem can be converted into a strength by thinking about and practicing a larger variety of methods to prolong/reset range effectiveness (SH bair DJ, ledgecancels,wavelands, etc) and by thinking about puff's threat range as diagonal instead of horizontal. No one has perfected this because it’s very complicated and any single technique has drawbacks if done predictably or at a bad time but the sheer wealth of angles available to puff at any given time is incredible and deserves fine attention. Additionally, in many situations puff's mobility can allow her to cover multiple options but only if she jumps preemptively at a strict timing (ex: covering an in place option with an early crossup bair, then grabbing/resting should they roll with your jump). Sometimes Puffs will do this intuitively but it can be better taken advantage of if examined consciously.

Earning Your Openings

PPMD says that puff's biggest problem is that she can't approach. I agree. Puff's punish game can be improved (a lotttttt) but that’s just a matter of course. Neutral is not so easy and is a more fundamental problem. Any time I see a puff fall apart it's because they're being forced to approach and just can't do it. She just can't pin fox down, can't adjust her spacing horizontally or vertically from no commitment as well as the fox can (note: while this issue exists in other MUs vs fox is by far the worst. I don’t think it’d be all that problematic if fox didn’t exist or didn’t have a gun). Over the course of his career Hungrybox has devoted much of his effort into identifying ways to avoid approaching altogether with mixed results. In every case it requires a lead. In many it requires a stupid opponent. While avoiding the issue entirely in this way is clearly beneficial, I’m unconvinced that it’s the the singular solution that it gets treated like.

(This is mostly verbally. People have a hard time navigating their own cognitive biases. Your perception of your records on stages is much different than the reality in numbers. Etc. It’s difficult to accurately track the success of any tactic without watching vids back with a notebook. In this way I think that the inadequacy of puff’s neutral and dependence on camping is greatttly exaggerated by virtue of ease of perception. It is easy to identify planking. It is easy to talk about planking. It is ultimately easy to solve planking. It is much more difficult to perceive and to work out options from different positions and tempos on stage. If Puff players aren’t willing to do that then it’s no wonder that they struggle and fall back to jumping away. If Puff players don't recognize their neutral wins via selective abstraction or by ignorance of followups then it's no wonder they don't abuse their frequency.)

I think that the same problem can be solved better with what has been called "Incremental Spacing" and with FOOTSIES. At it's simplest, FGC footsies is the triangle of options Whiff Punish beats Poke beats Walk Forward beats Whiff Punish. With the primacy of pokes and the sheer strength of puff's whiff punish game it is easy to neglect a walk forward game or to write it off as too complicated/difficult. This is to your Puff's severe disadvantage.

I think that the majority of Puff’s problems disappear with strong footsies (i.e. identifying, solving, predicting, and executing mixup scenarios). In this way I think that Jigglypuff is in all honesty a relatively weak character choice UNTIL you are able and willing to be the smarter player, at which point she is S-tier. Her outstanding punish and unique positional options create mixup opportunities that when played correctly frequently result in insta-kills. In order to take full advantage of these mixups you must use a) clearly defined setups (ex: Puff on Shield) and b) active prediction. I don't think that anyone has committed much to either. They're too busy floating around waiting for their instincts to tell them what to do. You can and should literally kill someone for predicting when they will sit in shield. You can and you should kill or combo someone for predicting how they will move. Stop playing a 1-player game of "zone with bair until they walk into me or I feel like nairing" and and acknowledge the opponent making decisions in front of you.

In order to whiff punish, a Street Fighter player has to have tested (and practiced) which normals are useful to punish which normals with at which ranges. Do Puff players know any of that? Heck no, we guess from moment to moment. So how can we expect anyone to practice whiff punishing (and subsequently following things up) in different scenarios? Eventually I want to have notes like I have for on shield vs all common options. I boiled grounded shieldpokes down to two simple pokes that compliment each other and grab. Similar, simple systems exist all over the whole game. They just need identified then practiced.

Footsies start where tactics end. When we don't have or know of a tactic to win a situation (i.e. low tiers automatically lose to bair, falcon automatically loses to crouch, etc) then we HAVE to predict and punish (much much much beefier and easier punishes if you're waiting for something. Not jumping habitually after a fireball but actively looking for the fireball, hearing him go "HADO—" and jumping. Gotcha bitch. Jumping after the "KEN" might be too late. Maybe puff is slow enough that you need to jump before they do. With a prediction that's ok!). Luckily for us jigglypuff is a freakin god at it. Perfect mobility. Perfect options.

Bair is an AMAZINGGGGG tool because generally speaking you risk nothing meaningful by committing to it but they have to give you information every time you throw it out. You need information to make predictions and EVERY BAIR IS FREE INFORMATION. It's not a poke, it's not for zoning, it's for information. Isn't that crazy? Even empty jumps can be treated like that because if you get nervous you can just fill it with bair or jump away and start creeping back to center over again. No big deal. Because you don't care about stage control (via being able to use the air off stage as part of your “aerial dash dance”) you have as long as you like to figure your guy out (exception being fox because you're potentially taking damage the whole time from lasers. However that just puts you on a shorter timer, doesn't make this less true). But I think that you should be willing to actively figure him out, then blow his shit up off of predictions. I think that’s Jigglypuff’s strongest methodology but it takes a smart and dedicated player, not the pussy bitch cowards that get attracted to her because upthrow rest is easy and bair saves them from having to think.

Look at your character. Look at her tools. Change your gameplan. Change your results.

Friday, November 20, 2015

Teams for FoxPuff

I have a static fox teammate. I wanted to think about how to better play to long-term and effective strategies so I wrote this in order to brainstorm and distill a bit as well as identify things to talk with him about. Will edit/expand/correct over time.

- - -


Teams is really really cool because there’s so much active problem solving. Little situations can make big differences and well executed, holistic goals can dominate.

One of the biggest differences between teams and singles is that advantages are temporary. Everything that you do is on a timer i.e. what can you get away with before you need to split your attention? You rarely have the luxury of stretching an edgeguard out over 10 seconds. That’s way too long to assume their partner won’t interrupt you. But with good positioning you can frequently get away with whatever you want in small intervals. Fox puff might be the best team in the game at literal murder under 3 seconds but they have to work together.

Hypothesis: Better synergy > Better players.
At root, synergy is: you’re both working on the same or compatible plans.

I think that talking a lot is very helpful. Hopefully you and your partner have good synergy naturally or through practice but you can’t expect him to be a mind-reader. If you want him to do something different, tell him what and why, at least in between matches. Make a habit of asking what you can do to make things easier for him.

When there’s an ambiguous edgeguard etc make a habit of verbalizing “I have ledge” or “I have high.”
When a clear structure doesn’t work because someone doesn’t play their role (example, fox has ledge, puff covers the on stage recovery and fsmashes their landing lag but fox gets up and gets hit with it too), quickly say “That was my job.” It may not have been obvious to your partner in the heat of the moment.
Defining situations where you each have a simple and clear “job” is a huge benefit. The more that you can work out and internalize the stronger your synergy and the stronger your team.


Pros: Super fast
Super good at killing the exact characters that puff has trouble killing
Super fast
Super amazing at getting grabs etc for puff to play off of

Cons: Super 2v1able
Super fragile if puff doesn’t babysit him

Pros: Perpetual threat of instant death off on a laundry list of setups
Auto stage control/safe zone around her
Usually lives forever
Can't be gimped or 2v1ed so she can liberally edgeguard etc

Cons: Soooo Sloooowwww
Super easy to ignore
Can die very early to knee etc

Fox can and should switch targets a LOT. Because puff’s mobility is limited, there are times where he has to pull himself out of a potentially bad situation before it gets bad and fall back to where she can help him. This defensive movement can instantly be turned into an offensive advantage should he catch someone between him and puff for a quick 2v1 rally/kill (Lucky in particular is really good at that).
Puff can and should go on a killing rampage. In teams she’s even more polarized than she is in singles. She can slow the game down and keep fox safe to keep being fox and she can use fox to fish for devastating rests/edgeguards.

I think the simplest way to think about puff fox is that they’re both ridiculous killing machines so you have to use each other to blow shit up but they’re also fragile so you have to constantly take care of each other. Assuming you are watchful and keep your options open every time someone tries to kill one of you they’re leaving themselves open to a quick gimp/grab/upsmash/rest/etc from the other.


A staple teams strategy is “double team the fast faller.” This works well because a) double teaming the fast character means that he is getting hit and thus can’t move freely, b) presumably their partner is a slower character that can’t rush in to help as well, c) fast fallers can die quickly.

Looking at teams, I think that you can translate that 3 part advantage to any team via prioritizing when to fight where. Quick judgements create sudden opportunities.

a) Rather than double team the fast faller you should double team the situationally more mobile character. This is often the fast faller but may be the better player or the one lower in %. It depends on the situation, hence, situationally.

b) look for/create scenarios where one player cannot assist their partner. If an edgeguard is lengthy, abandon it for a quick 2v1 on their teammate, even if it’s only for 2 seconds. You can always turn around and come back to finish the fight with heavy stage control behind you. Consider putting off killing a high% floaty for a while if their repeatedly getting hit away pays off in time spent 2v1ing their teammate. Etc.

c) Every character in the game can die quickly to foxpuff. Identify and practice setups to kill efficiently.


Your goal is to establish a position to pincer and incapacitate the more mobile character while maintaining control. This is not your only strategy but I think it is the primary one for foxpuff.

Just like in singles, while damage is valuable it is NOT an end-goal. Wherever possible volleys should have a purpose beyond damage, largely to link into a strong kill setup i.e. to set up one of several specific hits for your partner (dair to grab to rest, bair to uptilt to bair to rest, bair to upsmash, upair to upair, bair to edgeguard, etc). Maybe it’s not always possible but a melee 2v1 is sooo crazy that I think if you’re creative enough you’ll find something.
Many exchanges are not strictly sandwiches but offer similar opportunities to slip in and mess someone up. Puff can jump into fox’s fight w/ nair rest on a distracted opponent etc.
Similarly, you can often force their hand in some way that helps your partner a lot. Puff’s aerials (on hit or on shield) translate very often into a free grab for fox. A puff in the air cuts off a large number of escape options, making his neutral easier. If fox can force out a double jump from below with an upsmash threat then puff can WoP them to oblivion.

Personally I think that while the Support/Carry model might not be a false paradigm it isn’t a sufficient one. FoxPuff in particular benefit immensely from making instantaneous changes in position in order to create/exploit a setup to rest/edgeguard/etc. Positioning and strategy is not so simple as one player attacks a lot and the other supports him from behind.

Puff in front
Puff’s wide vertical range of effectiveness commands space and funnels the opponent for fox to pick up. Fox can then be more surgical with his attacks as they are forced down under the approaching puff.

Fox in front
Fox's neutral game is godlike. Puff can interfere whenever fox slips up, making fox’s biggest weakness (gets heavily punished) negligible.

Neither of these takes full advantage of puff/fox’s joint ranges.
I think as a rule of thumb puff should stay over fox at ~45 degrees. Fox shouldn’t stray much farther than in reach of 45 degrees. This is of course a little lenient because puff just needs enough time to get to 45 degrees and then descend by the time anything goes down. If she’s free to move then the angle is more forgiving than if she’s occupied. This maintains the advantages of both fox and puff in front over a wide range of situations.
If you picture puff’s range as a big X shape (diagonals being her potential jump/fall path) and fox’s as a sort of V with a line under it (like a K turned 90 degrees counterclockwise) then puff over fox covers an absurd, dense, and complimentary range. They should both constantly try to maximize this.


__FP___XX_ (these seem neutralish but because of threat ranges foxpuff is better at it than most other teams).
_____P_FXX (this is amazing, one of the best positions)
__F_XX_P__ (good but can go bad fast. ___FXXP___ is great but _FXX_P____ is bad)

 ____F_XPX_ is better than ____P_XFX_ because puff can’t be gimped or 2v1ed very well. They are like a happy neutral.
I think  ____F_XPX_ is generally ok but ____P_XFX_ is horrible and fox should just jump to top platform/roll toward puff/something dramatic to get out.



Basically in any position where there’s lots of space between puff and fox (puff can’t move fast to save or to take advantage, even worse when fox doesn’t have horizontal space to stall for time in) foxpuff is losing.
The closer fox gets to the ledge the bigger the risk. Jigglypuff doesn’t need much stage to play with but fox does. He’s allowed to pursue edgeguards etc but they should be plays, not positional stances.

When stuck in a bad spot fox needs to prioritize changing the game by running through or over to arrive back at center/in reach of puff. Puff’s job is to establish a safe zone without getting hit back out. If either are too desperate and pick a bad moment then the bad position can get worse or get one of them killed.


You've got 3 seconds to mess someone up. Where do you want to be?
I thought about it and don’t think that they vary based on who they are teaming with. A 2v1 is a 2v1 and the only difference should be how frequently they come up/how long you can stay in them on average, no?

(sandwich with goal being push him off or up into bair into off
puff keeps ledge safe for friendly fox to use)

(force him off into gimp, puff as barrier to prevent autocombos on fox out, fox whiff punishes hits on puff into edgeguard)

(fox has stronger edgeguard vs low, puff backs him up/kills falcon that goes high)

(high % combo/pin into upsmash, low % catch her slipping and rest
rare to want to engage in a 2v1 vs peach. Position isn’t as strong as move-based setup. Maximize fox’s usable stage and puff cuts off her float/pins her for grab/upsmash. Puff is better in front than fox because she can’t screw up as hard. 2 deep might be better than sandwich when peach is free to move. Peach is more likely to die off of pickups that fox has to keep an eye out for but not obsess over.)

(either force grab/shine or damage by forcing her up so that fox can upsmash later (sheik and peach die to upsmash at ~ same range because identical weight).
sort of weird to double team, mostly just gonna try to bair her into something juicy.
Where is sheik weakest? Away from the thick. Strongest at center stage or gimping. So if you keep her out of center then she is not so able to play her game unless you give her what she wants.
The trouble with sheik/peach is that they live for a while regardless of position etc. And we can’t rely on cheese or edgeguards that will get interrupted. So we have to accept that and a) leave them be when we can be doing better on their partner and b) develop team combos when possible via move choice. When we are just trading hits/exchanges then they are winning handily.)

(puff eliminates fadeback option so fox wins neutral for even more free than normal. Like peach, no reason to bother most of the time.)

P_X_F___ (I think)
(marth seems like an easier version of sheik to me. He can surprise us but doesn’t have much to his name. He’s very very very vulnerable when forced up, so prioritize nudging him onto/above the platforms when it isn’t better to ignore him.)

(seems like peach but slower so potentially easier to lock into rest setup.
a problem is that if you ignore her she gets a charge shot and then puff can die at 40. So whoever is closer has to baby sit her a little bit but it just takes bairs from either of fox/puff.)


At highish but not killable%s in a 2v1 be aggressive because if you get hit and don’t die then fox gets a free grab upthrow upair upair or something.


in sandwiches if they DI up then we combo to upair(if it will kill)/WoP. If they are sent low then we combo to fox’s grab.

if they tech on a platform they die. If puff is close let her cover every option. Fox just immediately runs to other guy. If puff is not close enough to cover everything then let her cover tech toward her.
I think there are lots of places in this team where while fox does have a combo it’s better to let puff take it and to go open up the other guy. If puff converts to a rest it’s better than what fox could have done. If puff drops it no big deal because you get some damage/more opportunities on both.

a 2v1 that kills is an immediate 2v1 on the other dude.

Don’t stagger invincibility if you both die, use your double invincibility to kill someone

Attack through each other’s shield. You break up the situation.

Fox can go to platforms vs double floaties because his gameplan changes to “bair a lot.”

vs lots of characters’ recoveries fox on ledge puff rest landing lag on stage

vs other characters fox covers low puff jumps over his head with fair then keeps fairing if it hits

when puff aerials low to ground, fox can grab for free (beats sheild and hit) and then puff is right there for grab rest and after at 27s

bair rest

shinegrab rest

drill grab
drill shine rest (see him in position then run in on reaction to grab?)

running shine is very strong vs light characters because it ejects them and commits them to a tech as well as recovery time.

look for these shines near the ledge (leffen and hbox both preying on the other getting attacked. Not all of them work but leffen does a lot of move choices that he can’t follow up on but that hbox can kill from) (look at how lucky runs through a lot and that enables mango)

Friday, November 13, 2015

Hbox vs Mango The Big House 5 Analysis

Hbox vs Mango Big House 5

I don’t think that mango played particularly well (relatively passive and didn’t abuse his advantages) but I do think that hbox played the best that I’ve ever seen him. I want to pick up on what contributed to that.

Things to look for in the MU
Fox gets most of his work done by using lasers to force puff to make punishable all-in kinds of decisions. Puff is most vulnerable when landing predictably OR when she lets fox occupy the space directly above or below her. The matchup is difficult for her largely because puff does not have clear or very reliable ways to threaten fox’s positioning. His high mobility and preference to just run to the other side and start up the gun negates traditional notions of stage control.
The MU is very tense because while this is definitely a bad MU puff has a lot of death touches on fox. If he consistently avoids her pokes and doesn’t overextend himself (i.e. then puff is going to have a tough time getting them but they are always 2 steps away at most, which makes it stressful on both players. As you’re taking laser damage it is very tempting to press too hard for unreal pokes, opening yourself up for fox to pick apart with grabs or 15% bairs.

This is going to be somewhat exhaustive and descriptive. Not abstracted yet because I want to be able to confidently identify all of the patterns before I think about how they can be improved on.

Time notation by in game clock

Game 1

8:00 non-neutral start mango lasers and hbox goes high to see what the other will do behind the GO!
hbox takes stage, mango halts for laser stance so the not full momentum bair whiffs then runs under the endlag
hbox goes high to close space outside of laser range,  mango commits to shs so he can’t run and has to shield.
7:54 smart of mango to avoid WL off top fair, that’s not common
hbox fair after rising nair on shield was late and bad FH. Probably ideally shielddrop upair. Gets punished w/ 15% bair.
Don’t like useless WDes vs fox, that’s a lot of frames to commit to nothing in this MU.
7:51 identical fair vs laser situation, I think hbox misjudged and thought fair would connect.
Mango does the same FH out of shield. Probably to avoid a grab. Because it’s a repeated situation you can identify this as a key moment. Gets another bair.
hbox goes high after ledge. Initial fair is unsafe. Mango goes to bair it but is late so he leaves the jump empty. Falls through platform so hbox’s 2nd fair whiffs. That’s a difficult fox jump to punish.
7:47 Mango appears to decide not to press the issue and resets to lasers but bairs under when hbox goes high (3rd time). Obviously pattern recognition from mango.
7:44 interesting position, hbox waits to confirm a probable hit before dropping through platform. No the best spacing from mango. Mango immediately predicts hbox retreating vertically again, then waits for hbox to go high again and gets a bair. More pattern recognition.
7:37 going top platform level allows you to react to any rising fox aerials. Hbox gets a punish on a weird fsmash from mango. No idea what that was supposed to be. But crossup so no grab. Mango FHs anyway. Looks like he uses FH at low % to option select a get out of grab/followup vs puff’s approaches.
7:34 unfortunate
7:30 this time hbox is far enough horizontally to protect his going to the side platform but lands too far in so gets clipped with a bair while fixing his spacing. Ideally shield then shielddrop upair.
bad habitual bair to get out of hitstun. Mango thought about punishing. Mango goes to side plat to pressure ledge then gambles with fsmash but hbox spaced out enough to avoid and gets a nair. Ideally dair grab. Another FH from mango, then decides to initiate shield pressure. Upsmash might have been read on spotdodge but was close to poking. Shielded upsmash should have definitely been rested. Very easy. Stock trade at worst. Would not have missed the stage, toph is incorrect.
Hbox’s few hits have been % inappropriate so far.
7:18 Mango has established that hbox likes to reset to corner of the platform so he can just shark it.
7:14 mango drops shield too late and gets baired
obvious tomahawk grab spot so mango spotdodges but hbox doesn’t take it and forces a shield.
Another FH out of the spot so hbox finally DJ upair rest. Looks like a read, not sure. Anyway good adjustment.
This is jigglypuff at a high level. If you notice a pattern you just need one read and they will die.
7:05 hbox retreats to the side of the side platform then takes stage when mango goes high (but avoids straight vertical spacing). But then he gives it up for no reason.
6:59 WD to avoid grab goes under the jab lol. I don’t know why he chooses to roll. Probably out of fear of grab/upsmash. Not really a fan but that’s a weird spot. Jab after the roll is a “this situation is weird I think I’ll get away with this” decision. Pretty terrible. Gets baired for misjudging spacing, then rolls to reset the situation twice more.
6:52 ahhhh that was the primmmme grab but input too early so it whiffs. Fox whiffed a FH aerial he had no choice but to land. Mango FHs out but DJs this time. Not sure if adjustment to getting upaired earlier (unlikely) or if wants to establish vertical spacing since hbox is close to center.
Hbox gets punished for trying to take to side platform while fox has tempo. Misstimed sdi on upthrow upair.
Bad WDs get him upaired. Fairs to get out of hitstun are iffy but hbox DIs away so it’s alright.
6:42 Spammy fairs to catch if mango decides to FH at hbox for no reason/to procrastinate landing. Mango guesses return to ledge but hbox goes up instead and gets a bair. Empty bair covers if mango shields and maybe a late jump but mango just FHs early again, gets grabbed empty landing. Good.
6:37 backthrow
50/50 dj to ledge or dj back
hbox guesses back then reads an instant sideB/upB probably because the dj was too high for dj to ledge so it telegraphs an intent to do something high/fast.
Hbox grabs ledge to set up for falling bair on low firefox. Unexpected trade but hbox makes it back
6:30 mango uses invulnerability to take ledge and pressure hbox to come back to stage. Hbox stalls over dj aerial range until invulnerability runs out. Getup inv forces a shield. I think that mango likes shielding next to shields to bait a reaction and look for your first impulse. He’s been doing that for a long time.
Mango knows that hbox likes to double roll so he does an extra DD before the grab. No second roll means it’s free.
6:20 that was actually a sick shine calling out the fadeback, surprising it didn’t land. Could have been the stock.
Hbox is demonstrating intent to plank ledge and choosing low risk options.
same situation but the getup is earlier so mango is the one that has to shield. Nothing to do after bair on shied so hbox takes center then pressures the vertical escape. Annnnnnd runs to other ledge.
Note that mango DJs around a potential grab on landing.
6:09 upair from ledge oddly timed so he ends up getting stuffed with jab > bair
takes ledge when mango commits to laggy uptilt
6:04 these off stage engagements are sort of about balancing risk reward via how far you space and expect them to space. Lots of near misses because while you can predict an angle it’s harder to predict the amount of extension and if you’re off you can die. For both characters but fox has it harder.
5:56 lol that’s a funny upair. This is mostly damage to get fox out of CC range and closer to juicy combo % before he gets you.
Mango delays his timing slightly and gets a bair.
5:48 uptilt to catch any eager movement.
Another FH. Those are hard to punish because they are so fast you have to predict the timing and if you are wrong you can get baired. It’s better to punish the fall (like with the grab/backthrow) but fox has a mixup where he can either aerial necessitating a shield/WD, empty land to grab the shield, or double jump over your grab. I don’t think there’s a way to cheat that so you either have guess or take center stage. Lowest risk is probably WD then instant bair toward stage.
5:43 as soon as hbox goes to side plat mango runs forward and shields to protect from dropthrough aerial and force hbox’s hand. Ideally puff stays still and has a tight reaction to fox’s movement out of shield.
I think hbox predicted a pursuit when he went high. He was wrong and mango tries to punish the land but is a little slow.
5:39 has to shield vs vertical spacing, rolls again then reestablishes side platform occupancy but gets spooked into jumping out. Mango misspaces rising bair punish on return but hbox reels in so he gets vertical spacing and confirms a falling bair.
Good CC grab. Good recognition of upair on DI forward. Turnaround bair is good too. No DJ so grab ledge and roll.
5:27 on return hbox goes high to wait out inv. Gets opened up from below because he DJed then faded back in. Either would have been fine but not both when fox runs forward
5:23 I think this nair is horrrrible. Sooo easy to CC shine/grab/upsmash. Mango FHs out.
5:22 I think mango accidentally buffered a roll instead of fallthrough bair but could be wrong. SH away and hbox is in position to pound the fall. See hbox do that to marth a lot. Missed tech, mango combo.

* upair vertical spacing > rest
* grab on tomahawk > backthrow > bair > read dj back bair gimp
* CC grab on bair > upthrow > upair > bair edgeguard
* pound on empty fall > missed tech > mango combo

Stock losses
* fox runs under a puff bair and bairs
* baired while planking

Interesting to note that lots of situations repeat but the winner depends on the timing more than the spacing.

There is a lot of pattern recognition that allows mango to safely pressure hbox’s habitual positioning. Next step to remove variability and to ensure not having to rely on clutch moments as much would be to look for patterns in mango’s positioning (in addition to scuffle habits like the FHs) to exploit similarly. Difficult and might be tempo dependent but that’s the way fox vs puff works.

Game 2

CP presumably because mango wants earlier kills and to be closer to puff. Based on how game one played out it’s a good CP. Puff should die more frequently and earlier while fox’s rate should remain similar.
PS is better if fox is getting grabs, which he isn’t.

8:00 non-neutral start
mango take center hbox runs to side plat
mango goes to punish because this is obvious but hbox reacts, jumpsaway, and pressures land. Too slow on second bair.
Good jump away from fox’s attempt to whiff punish.
Generally speaking I think puff should wait for fox to jump but jump away on reaction to fox’s jumps in.
7:57 tomahawk uptilt barely shieldpokes because of the slant? wow. Reads the roll but upair is input too late. I think not jab resetting was because DI down was unexpected so he jumped for an upair then moved back on recognizing no tech.
Mango could have shined but spotdodges followup then shines. He’s late on the techchase, hbox resets with roll.
7:52 It’s actually crazy that the grab here whiffs wtf melee fox is right there, hbox played that right.
7:52 funny little WD forward under fox jump. Fair could have been better.
I think hbox is trying to bait a spotdodge but mango FHs instead.
This time hbox’s WD was too short so he gets baired.
really slow on the CC grab attempt so eats another and gets grabbed
Missed sdi, comes back from the side, mango sits on platform and gets shieldpoked from below. All puffs should be doing that it’s easy. Iffy fsmash assuming that mango will stay on platform and do nothing. If anything grab would be better.
Mango whiffs his upair punish.
SICK powershield > walk forward and do nothing from mango lmao
7:40 mango takes vertical position but lands empty and DDs when he recognizes that hbox is spaced well for it.
Because hbox committed to an early bair that whiffed he feels pressured to back off so mango takes stage.
7:39 mango makes good calls vs hbox’s off stage jumps but misplaces them and gets faired. Hbox lands on stage so he doesn’t have time to stop the dj sweetspot. Hbox spaces out to avoid punishes but is burning hella jumps. Mango is tripped up by final pound shieldstun and lets hbox back.
7:30 neat little fake fallthrough to bait a bair from hbox.
poweshield pushback messes both players up.
Mango outplays hbox in vertical position and earns a bair for the kill.
7:21 mango shields vs inv because there’s not much stage but hbox recognizes and land uptilts. Hard to tell if the uptilt pokes (barely possible) or if mango goes to jump. Weird decision anyway I would have grabbed, It’s just as fast.
Platform techchase, hbox goes for mindless aerial so he gets nothing and actually gets naired out of the aftermath positions.
Mango chooses to space outside of hbox’s attempts to poke an approach, then fullhop nairs to poke the repeated jump. Roll was probably meant to be a bair OoS. Note hbox WDs away from potential WD grab OoS.
Mango slips up and fairs breaking the rhythm so hbox dash attacks into the dash dance. Reads and fairs the dj sweetspot (it looked like mango tried to DI to ledge and barely missed so it makes sense for mango to do that).
7:07 hbox goes high to avoid inv, both space very carefully and mango falls back to center.
7:03 hbox uses mango shielding as a chance to land. Clips mango’s advancing DD with nair but nair doesn’t do shit in this MU so mango FHs out and  ends up with verticle spacing. Mango leaves it empty and gets hit with a space-filler upair. DIs out so no grab. Hbox barely avoids whiff punish with a jump away. They both whiff a counter attack looking for closer spacing than what was given but hbox committed to pound so its significant endlag gets baired.
6:56 mango feigns letting hbox back when hbox goes to ledge but stays close enough to nair ledgejump.
holy goodness mango almost rocks hbox with well placed smashes but barely whiffs both times via hbox returning to off stage. But those jumps while evasive aren’t very productive so they eventually get whiff punished with grab.
Successful sdi.
6:47 spotdodge is likely failed shielddrop but mango flubs the punish.
Hbox goes for an all in pound but an attack there was somewhat predictable.
6:44 easy rest OoS
6:43 mango FHs over slightly late upair and back to center but spaces too close and hbox is ready for land with a fair
hbox takes the stage then gives it up on a high risk high reward read on roll away. Mango rolls in but whiffs his whiff punish and gets whiff punished lol.
6:36 hbox stuffs the FH aeiral with a dj bair. This is pretty much exactly how he beats m2k 50% of the time lol. I don’t know why fox would want to do that when he could run forward and maybe FH bair after but they do.
Missed tech dsmash. Ideally jab reset fsmash.
6:32 I think hbox tried to bait a horizontal firefox but mango didn’t fall for it.
6:30 good spacing by mango to arrive back at center and hit on shield. Wow and to bair the fair.
6:25 Hbox’s jumps getting predictable.
6:23 lol high risk juicy % on both characters so they are inching into position, no sudden commitments
mango nairs on reaction to shield, assumes advantages, initiates pressure on more shield, takes stage when hbox rolls out but overcommits and gets baired.
Hbox anticipates returning to stage via platforms because that’s what mango’s been doing but doesn’t drift far enough.
AC nair prevents movement (even though as fox I would gladly trade with bair myself) and triggers a kill attempt by both that hbox loses because FH upair is faster than WD fsmash.
6:08 more FHs from mango out of situation, gets a bair and shine OoS’s obvious retaliation. Surprised at that DI, normally that’s a techchase.
Bad nair gets punished followed by another punish on hbox pushing his luck with aggressive spacing after getting hit with an aerial. These aerials piled on damage fast. Links to grab, upthrow good DI, mango doesn’t dash back so he bairs for damage.
5:58 hbox slips over committed jumps from fox but decides he’d rather go to ledge lol. Burns all of his jumps then gets super lucky with the tech and makes it back. Barely misses edgeguard but that was tight anyway.
5:49 lol they want the other to come forward a litttle more so badly. Mango eventually backs off and attempts to punish a land but upsmash is too slow so he gets killed.
5:41 interesting that mango read the fall through with an uptilt although it’s been a bit since hbox stuck to a platform seeing as he was getting punished for it on BF.
5:36 misses dash and gets baired
5:30 the rest of this mathc is pretty ugly, lots of weird commitments at each other and questionable spacing.
5:10 they’ve both landed a few whiff punishes but this one leads to a platform techchase, hbox bairs rather than rest because of stock deficit. Actually predicts the jump back sideB perfectly but needed to turn around fair for extra mobility to hit it. Instead he’s left in a bad position.
5:00 shielddrop dj upair after that bair, not grab.
4:52 mango is starting to give himself time to react again, allowing a bair on this FH nair
4:39 potential shielddrop uapair again. Much better rewards.
4:30 positions vertically rather than continuing to guess at a jumps, hbox guesses and gets whiff punished.

* dash attack into DD > read dj sweetspot w/ fair > fair
* fair on missed upsmash

Stock Losses
* fumbling around each other’s bairs at ledge at high %
* commits to WD upsmash and gets FH upaired
* missed dash and baired at high %
* bairs underneath fox on a platform and gets baired

Hbox’s aerial spacing around the side platforms makes it more difficult for fox to abuse his strengths as long as he chooses to engage. The rewards are still relatively high for either player. Additonally, hbox retreating to the off-stage side of the platform without committing to landing on it greatly reduces the number of angles that fox can use to approach.  However, hbox committing to more aerials and less stage control makes it hard to arrive at the low% kill setups that won him game 1. Damage for damage fox wins, especially on this stage.

Game 3

Much better than FoD for hbox because he can afford to take more damage to fish for his kill setups. This stage buffs puff in the damage for damage to the point that fox likely has to commit to a lot of lasers in order to win it, which is exploitable with good execution.

8:00 non neural start, hbox goes high until mango gives him a route down. Almost gives him a grab but hbox WDs back instead.
Uses FH aerials to close space. Mango whiffs a FH aerial retort.
7:55 good reaction with dj away to rising bair
mango demonstrates intent to reset to lasers after whiffs goading hbox to approach
7:53 looks like he flubs a running shine
hbox leaves this jump empty suspecting no FH aeiral, which lets him upair mango’s bair OoS after the crossup
easy grab
pound covers no tech, tech in place, tech roll in. Tech away was impossible to cover at all so this was great. Also puts in position for following reaction techchase.
Really amazing sequence of reactions. That’s a great lead.
7:44 goes high after rest punish until mango lets him down.
bad decision to land directly above fox, gets baired.
7:37 means to clip fox running through with nair but started too high, has to shield bair
rolls to ledge, fairs fox’s approach.
7:37 I’m assuming that these fairs are supposed to be nairs because they’ve done nothing but get punished.
Fox is too low in % to crossup after hit. Punished heavily with poor di/sdi.
 7:26 hbox demonstrates intent to stay on ledge at least until fox is out of CC range but he’s extending too far. Mango’s in a good spot to bait aerials that don’t really have to be there.
7:17 should have been shined but mango is tunnelvisioning on bair.
7:14 good poke but really really slow on the grab. Mango FHs out. Doesn’t take first punish, tries to get hbox to spotdodge grab, hbox jumps away instead. Hbox is slow on the punish. Dunno why the upsmash was being charged even. Hbox dies.
7:05 Mango’s been running to the side then through so the land sh upair is good. Tries to uptilt instead of grab who knows why. Also dash attacks the missed tech instead of jab please tell me that was a flub.
Reads a FH out of the corner but I don’t think that was likely because hbox’s spacing wasn’t actually pressuring the shield. Gets run under baired.
6:59 tomahawk uptilt attempt was good there, beats shield and jump, but whispy makes iffy spacing horrible spacing.
Immediately whiffs a bair, I think mango wasn’t prepared to be that close so he naired instead of a grounded option to punish. Misses.
Whiffing in front of one another, mango does a bad FH fair, shieldgrab upthrow rest.
6:50 good DI out of the upair to reduce punish. DJ fair a bit early but makes mango jump to center.
Hbox takes ledge rather than contest dash dance.
6:45 hbox goes high (initial bairs are upairable, I think) but mango thinks he’s going to stay offstage so hbox gets to slip in with a nair that should have been CC grab/upsmashed for free. Mango FHs out. Hbox is starting to fill the space above those little engagements but it’s just badly executed so all it does is put puff around fox on a platform.
6:41 mango gives up the direct punish on the upair so that he can more safely aerial what comes after (and so he doesn’t have to shielddrop lol) which in this case is hbox WDing on a platform for no reason again.
hbox pounds nothing. Would have had good reward but mango wasn’t there so hbox gets upsmashed.
6:36 vertical spacing on the platform, hbox retreating to offstage position.
6:35 mango FHs out, hbox snaps to ledge and waits for some kind of endlag.
mango tries the armada downtilt but it whiffs. Very tight spacing from hbox.
6:30 dair uptilt was actually a pretty sick option but mango pulled back at the last moment rather than challenge with a bair so hbox gets grabbed. Upthrow 2nd hit upair. Hbox burns a lottt of jumps coming back then goes straight to ledge. I think he’s trying to get mango away from the ledge so that he can’t get baired on his way back there.
6:10 FH upair that we saw on yoshis but this time hbox doesn’t WD fsmash. Mango lands and shields then bair upsmashes, as he has before. Seeing this repeat, I think it’s designed to get the upsmash to shieldpoke but hbox just keeps rolling.
Hbox jumps away from potential followup after the roll. Mango run up shields looking for an upsmash OoS. Hbox takes ledge rather than challenge, although I think just because he happened to get there fast.
6:03 mango takes ledge but gets up too slowly to punish airdodge. Should shined or acted earlier (maybe he expected a fadeback after the airdodge and planned on hogging) at least ledgedash.
Shield jab shinegrab. Weird string. Maybe to stuff an OoS input. Backthrow likely unintentional.
6:58 hbox does a string of questionable aerials and is then baited into acting OoS and upaired.
Mango is starting to do more and more indirect punishes. Setting up or recognizing a direct punish but then punishing the immediate “quick, cover my ass!” reaction instead.
5:48 hbox is really slow to punish the run-through so he burns his inv on an uptilt
they’re both starting to look for timing attacks over positional ones again.
5:39 I would have eaten the nair and CC grabbed.
a lot of slightly mispaced/mistimed aerials, erring on the side of safe, so it looks like they’re just attacking around one another.
5:35 interesting grab because it covers an extra shl or a too close DD. I don’t think hbox anticipate the landing timing of the shl correctly but good to point out.
gets grabbed out of jumpsquat after roll
good sdi
5:30 catches mango moving to early OoS but not ready to follow up directly
5:26 pretty shitty nair OoS by mango
hbox could have CC grabbed the following nair but was busy holding away, dj fairs too early to punish grab whiff but is in position to punish retreat to platform
 looks like hbox habitually falling upairs after most rising fairs. In many cases I think they’d be better left empty. Could have punished fox’s fall/land.
5:22 mango moves as if to camp then doesn’t camp so gets a run under bair
punishes the waveland on platform. That waveland is assumed now.
Immediately prioritizes vertical spacing after hbox commits to highish djs, gets an upair but good sdi
hbox does the habitual WD on platform before falling through with an aerial, giving mango time to run up shield. Spacing is ambiguous enough to avoid OoS punish.
5:14 dair grabs a whiffed upsmash > bthrow > reads the DJ again, this time prepared for the side B land lag. Chooses dsmash over rest which is good in this situation. Has the edgeguard but barely misses. Perfect angle. 
Mango doesn’t refresh inv again so he gives up the counter edgeguard.
fishing fishing fishing
4:56 if that nair was reactive it was super good
4:54 weird weird djs by hbox but doesn’t get punished
lots of land shields by mango lots of floating away by hbox
mango ends up putting himself in a spot where he has to get baired and he dies.
4:29 mango takes ledge to force hbox on stage, roll through shines when his tempo is awkward 
4:16 after confirming a million of the same let go fair regrabs mango mistimes the shine to punish it. Hbox upairs from ledge to punish the dj from shine. free grab. Should have been upthrow rest but he’s afraid of platform tech so he upairs. Still unsure what will happen so he bairs and mango jumps out. Good reaction to upair the jump by hbox, links to bair but mango has good sdi and manages to grab ledge. Squeezes through and gets a bair.
4:02 that was an amazing grab ledge bair from mango and an amazing airdodge from hbox but mango is ready for fsmash, which is also amazing.
 3:56 mango runs through inv again
3:55 hbox somehow buffers a shielddrop, trying to crouch grab?
3:54 of cool because hbox got hit with the dair while in the air he can grab before fox. Good awareness.
Upthrow, ambiguous DI, good upB
3:48 horizontal spacing converted to vertical spacing to bair
every time mango aerials hbox at low %s he lands and shields because hbox does an aerial out of hitstun every time.
Hbox floating around just outside of FH range looking for a punish.
3:33 lol that fsmash at the WD forward. high tension so drops edgeguard.
3:21 rather than find a mixup mango just keeps giving hbox opportunities to mess up and hbox doesn’t.

* empty FH crossup > upair OoS movement > upthrow > techchase with pound > dj techchase rest
* space out > shieldgrab FH fair flub > upthrow rest
* high % bair
*extended edgeguard vs stubbord upBs

Stocks Lost:
* late pound is shielded > Upsmash OoS
* baited into bair OoS and dj upaired
* ledge stolen, airdodges bair but gets fsmashed

In this game hbox opened the game with an amazing conversion that gave him a full stock lead at which point dreamland being dreamland allowed him to play exchange for exchange without falling behind as long as fox didn’t get an equally amazing conversion or start outplaying him completely, neither of which happened partly because hbox played around the ledge to slow the % building down/scout for drillgrabs and because mango was so willing to meet every challenge head on and play for mostly tempo attacks rather than positional ones.

Game 4

Mango already won on YS. He’s still looking for quick kills and PS is the next closest.
I personally think he should have gone FD. Hbox has been using the side platforms as obstacles pretty consistently. Additionally it’s easier for fox to take his time on FD because there’s only so much else that he can do.

8:00 non-neutral start, mango jumps to center, hbox jumps to side platform as soon as it’s vacant
mango goes to punish but it’s telegraphed and hbox jumps up and pincers mango to the corner really well
WD grab (and missed turnaround) wastes opportunity to just land grab
spotdodges the whiffpunish then grab, backthrow, but mango techs to ledge. Not sure if upthrow would be better. Obviously upair techchase doesn’t work but you could just techchase rest. Under the impression it would kill if sent left.
7:54 the normal getup was pretty predictable I think it’s all he’s done for the whole set.
hbox empty land grabs. Grabs are effective now because of frequency of aerials throughout the set. Hbox does this pattern soooo much in his long sets.
upthrow, full DI behind, pound was never going to hit. Would prefer run after and upair falling fox.
7:49 avoids bair again, forces shield, avoids SH aerial. Same pattern. lmao he even misses his turnaround grab again.
7:46 ideally you CC grab the nair, not shield it.
7:45 interesting, hbox goes to fair running fox but mango recognizes the situation (probably because he used to do it himself) and WDs back.
mango recognizes that he’s in a losing position for scuffles and commits to lasers
7:41 good bair vs hbox coming through the platform but had hbox sheilded it would have been an easy punish.
 ah, looks like hbox recognizes this because that’s what he does right away. Upthrow upair should have been techchase rest but he tries for more upairs until mango upBs out.
7:31 really tricky waveland off esp because he’s been staying on the platform so far.
7:28 goes for it again but mango reacts. Jump away bair is faster than mango anticipated.
7:24 whiff punish attempts until mango converts to dash attack
7:20 mango’s started to sit under platforms and shield, hbox gets a fair by spacing outside of shieldgrab
7:16 mango’s falling bair covered a late punish and a fallthrough, links to upsmash
7:09 fishing super hard with jab fsmash
mango crosses up before inv is done so he gets baired
good attempts to edgeguard firefox on reaction. It’s ok if fox gets ledge esp at this % and in position to punish on stage sideB.
7:02 woah ledgedash where did that come from. Good jump away.
6:58 mango waits so long to jump and DIs in so hard it’s obvious to cover dj sweetspot
6:55 hbox goes to platform then high to avoid fox inv
mango trades with nair when going to vertical bair, not good enough jump angle
6:51 not sure why FH bair here, almost gets grabbed, then he does another FH aerial in the same place. Maybe to fall on top of a late-ish jump from puff.
Ok he does it again so I think that’s it.
But gets CC grabbed, upthrow rest. That’s a bad stock to lose.
6:41 comes down with bair to cut off mango’s route to stage. With that angle it would have been difficult for fox to bair first. WD away from potential CC option.
6:40 lands in front of fox doing reverse fair, dunno why. Jab upsmash.
6:32 mango puts himself in the corner and empty jumps as puff comes in, so puff has time to uptilt before he can cross her up safely. links to grab, upthrow, I think the upair input was late so fox djs out. Should be able to hit his fall with 2nd upair but jump was too shallow. fox jumps out again.
6:25 hbox lands on a platform in front of fox, fox is ready and bairs the landing lag.
6:22 mango finally jumps out of the scuffle situation that’s been getting him in trouble after hbox crosses up.
6:20 looks like he misses a analog jump so he shls in place and gets upaired. I think hbox anticipated another run up shield and was looking to cross up with upair/catch a jump out. Wonky transformation, missed tech, mango combo.
6:15 good double upair, no sdi but that would be tough in that situation.
6:04 hbox doesn’t want to lose lol. Note that he goes high as mango runs out.
gets called out for repeated rhythmic jumps with shine. Just takes ledge.
5:54 gets pounded out of sakurai getup option. Mango sucks from ledge holy crap.
Free rest on upsmash OoS but maybe wouldn’t have killed. A little odd that the grab whiffed because that was super deep.
tight WDs right to get out of kill setups
5:38 fsmash after high jumps forces puff to cross up which he then uptilts, interesting
shitty shitty FH fair whiffs, grab upthrow rest.

* extended edgeguard enabled by high %
* CC grab upthrow rest after repeated FH aerials
* fox SHLs in front of puff, Upair > jab reset rest
* grab fair whiff, upthrow rest.

Stocks Lost:
* falls under fox, bair > upsmash
* whiffs in front of fox, jab upsmash

Mango stopped looking for and jumping out of most scuffles, which coupled with hbox being much much more aggressive and grounded the first 2 stocks this game got him tripped up and grabbed. A couple good plays off the platforms turned into a strong lead. Once up, hbox committed really hard to negating the significance of fox’s stage control and mango was once more A-OK with that all the way to the end. I don’t think he’s accustomed to not knowing when hbox will commit to something or (via hbox making a home on the side of the stage) that knowledge not being as valuable in the long run. Needs to update his tactics in a huge way.

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Pretty interesting set to see how hbox softens fox’s advantages here. Punish game can still be improved which is cool because as shown in BF game esp it’s already really good. Neutral is interesting because I’d have to look more specifically and think hard to find lasting improvements. Not that they don’t exist, it’s just that they’re very subtle. It’d be nice to better work out WHEN to jump. A 3rd of a second is the difference between being a stock up and a stock down sometimes. Would be good to make those spots more lenient via identification.
Hbox’s positioning in general should be looked it carefully. Made the biggest difference in this set other than his solid as steel followups. I want to watch the set where leffen bopppppps him and see what hbox does differently from here and esp what leffen does differently from mango. Some of this is clearly fallible but not all of it.