Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Hbox vs Hax at GOML Analysis

Hbox vs Hax GOML GFs
notation by in game timer

Game 3
8:00 non neutral start hbox imediately falls with nair to take center
rising fair to cut off grounded approach
then FH nairs into the DD. That sequence is pretty intense off the bat.
Hax shields the nair so gets a shine knockdown, he reads techroll away
7:54 jumps away from whiff punish on missed grab, prioritizes nair again.
Maybe because nair punishes are grounded so they do less % but the reward is a grab.
7:53 I think he tries to CC grab but too early then shieldgrabs late
WD forward afterward is super tight, assumes that fox wills stay empty for a second, forces shield again, at best gets stage or grab but gets shined (low immediate risk)
7:48 fox’s spotdodge is a missed input, probably another shine
good reaction to shield after fox FHFF, bad(predictable) shieldgrab after shine.
super horrible pound
the ff is unexpected and forces fox to vacate ledge
dair is premature so gets baired
the spotdodge grab is a 50/50 that is weighted in puff’s favor because it’s a harsher execution for fox (fox wants to grab/aerial to punish, is less likely to wait)
upthrow, upair for % to kill, missed grab opportunity pretty sure
but fox burns dj which = another upair, predictable getup, easy upair rest.
see how he’s dead off of one grab? lol
7:25 stalls until fox gives him a way down
intercepts the descent, again trying to link to grab
the bair was an overextension so he tries to mix up evasive options after
goes to CC the nair but is too high %
7:19 hax reads a spotdodge because hbox has spammed it so doesn’t go for grab right away
but he hesitated enough to get naired, nair hits high so no combo to grab, have to back away and punish if there’s a CC option
so get’s a dair, reads a roll away but was wrong lol
7:14 he is WDing back in anticipation of a dash attack, I think
7:11 dash attack is a high risk low reward movement read
gets daired but hax misses conversion to jab upsmash
he is free to bair in place thoguh because hbox is just sitting there spamming
7:05 hbox cuts off space, is slow to turnaround grab
that pound was actually not too unsafe because of range, second pound in response to fox jump so it will at worst trade, free edgeguard.
Very simple conversion off of one opportunity.
6:57 waits outside for fox to overextend and allow a crossup, not long enough so trades but that’s ok
6:52 this pound was high risk moderate reward, gets shielded and shined
oh my gosh, hax read the pound and went to shine it but messed up
he almost died right then and there
6:45 hbox is more ready than fox to convert off of the scuffle
6:43 he tries to fair over the dj but misjudges, needed to fh immediately dj
slow to adjust spacing so gets paired
hax overextends the edgeguard and gets pounded again (>_<; )
6:32 idk why hbox hangs out for long enough to have to shield, I’m guessing it was a misclick
has to get grabbed vs inv fox because he can’t shielddrop
6:27 hm, that nair could have been upsmashed. He’s looking for nair grab again.
he fakes hax out by using edgecancel to change his angle then gets a fair
shields a potential CC shine
WD out of ff bair, that was close, could have pivot grabbed
I think the FH nairs are presumed safe because hax has been exclusively using grounded approaches from a greater range, so hbox thinks that hax is not comfortable challenging head on and will wait to challenge the endlag, which is better for puff because it’s small and easy to buffer roll after or something.
Shield beats aerial or grab since fox can’t reliably kill off of grab anymore.
oh wow the WD forward was good and he dashed back on reaction to the sh bair.
goes to close space or get hit with counterhit bair
6:20 see how descending dair is spaced so that he can land and still have time to react should fox try to punish the landing?
If fox doesn’t that’s ok, he just gave up the whole stage for free.
but he slips under a FH bair (not a great option vs cornered fox for this reason, not enough nuanced control/timing)
6:16 ok yeah I am pretty sure the FH nairs are there to take stage/maybe get a grab/spaced and confirmed vs hax to be safe from immediate land punish
6:15 this one only doesn’t work via bad spacing
should have been dair jab upsmash
6:10 interesting, reads the dash back so bair is unsafe. He does rising pound to cover more space and keep in the air. Could have done the same thing but wayyyy safer with dj fair. Pound is not actually safer than bair on whiff lol.
6:06 shows his hand too early with that ff
6:03 corners fox again, nairs just because he’s inv and why not, hax runs into it lol
5:58 fox covers his feet so I don’t know why that uptilt hit. Fox must have jumped to try to shine OoS or something.
covers missed tech with bair then grabs the tech out. You can do this in many many many situations.
upthrow, partial DI behind, bair, another techchase, this time I think he reacts after jumping to tech in place
5:50 fsmash was a rhythm read
5:48 I think the nair is to cover spotdodge that happened before, not esp effective
5:47 nair forces grounded evasive fox to shield
note that fair and nair are better vs fox in the corner
reproduces the same nair and goes to punish the shine OoS but hax mixes it up
with no lasers or consistent  punishes it’s ok for hbox to take his time just slightly missing aerials until one hits
see how he keeps taking damage but then rolling out and resetting?
5:21 really good grab by hax
5:13 corners him, hax WLs on again then jumps but protects it with dair
CC grab, fthrow (dunno why not bthrow), thrown off by the slide off tech
5:09 cuts off hax’s jump path with nair
5:06 ok so the slight pause before jumping up at hax threatened a shieldpoke because had puff sh dj baired it would have gotten his exposed feet by the time she got there after a pause. Because of this hax jumped, which hbox was either ready for or reacted to. Kinda interesting.

upthrow conversion
pound to edgeguard
pound to edgeguard
baits jump and bairs, high%

Stocks Lost
spams spotdodge, gets baired
overextension recovering, gets baired
tomahawk grab upthrow upair

Game 5
8:00 FHs over potential lasers and DD
fox stays still so hits his shield
nairs after dash forward, fades back ‘cause he thinks he overcommitted, WD to ensure more fadeback costs grab opportunity.
WD nair to take stage, hax punishes with well spaced nair, exactly what he never did on DL
but he doesn’t hit confirm correctly so gets shield grabbed
upthrow upair for %, hax djs out again. Hmmmm I don’t know off hand if that is real, I think it is not but it looks close. Hbox reacts with pound, wasn’t banking on hax to hit tech.
7:52 empty WD forwards take stage with thread of aerial, pretty tricky. Neutral with fox is a lot of juggling unsafe options based on what you think he is and isn’t looking to punish.
hbox takes the whole stage then looks to punish hax’s aerial in, since that’s his new pattern out of the corner with no plats.
he telegraphs it though so hax reacts to the setup and djs out.
this is still an opportunity. hbox goes to punish, sees he’s late, then nairs to try and cover roll and no roll, could have just stood still for a second first.
7:47 nifty crossup upsmash
hax misses the ledgegrab, has to upB should be dead but suboptimal edgeguard. Needed to drop and bair.
7:40 bad spacing
7:38 vertically spaced nair cuts off fox’s jump and allows for fadeback if he doesn’t jump
guesses no tech or tech in place, is wrong
7:32 slight jump backward covered all options, but fair probs should have been a dair
the approach afterward is mistimed because he had to go so far to get to it
7:26 bair on reaction to the crossup
shitty edgeguard lol could have FHed out there to force hax to flinch, instead gave up ledge for free
the next nair is unsafe so it forces hbox to give up a lot of space
idk why hax responds to that with FH nairs and gets grabbed
7:16 the jump threatened ledge so hax goes high which is reactable
decides to stall off stage then messes up but hax lets him back w/ flub ledgejump
Note how hbox threatens the space in front of the ledge to give himself some stage to land on
then if fox doesn’t force the fadeback he doesn’t fade back
almost gets a grab because hax didn’t expect him to actually go forward that far
7:02 super confident predictions on how and when fox wants to move based on fox not showing much willingness to jump
6:58 feigns ff ledgegrab then crosses up instead as fo tries to beat him there
not sure what the next exchnge was aimed to do, sometimes hbox grabs just before an aerial hits him. I don’t know why. I think it is because his brain thinks “crouch grab” but he hasn’t focussed on confirming the crouch? I honestly have no clue.
6:54 nair out of hitstun, fox gets shieldpoked, actually. Not enough % to confirm grab from high hit so looks to punish after but hax attacks out
6:50 surprise pound. Because he’s made hax focus on crossup or no crossup hax isn’t prepared for that.
late reaction to tech.
6:44 super late upsmash
6:38 takes stage
ooh, that was a smart recognition that he could dair there. He reads a roll in again, hax spotdodges instead.
6:34 the classic hbox “um, uptilt missed I guess I do it again what’s the worst that can happen?”
6:31 that was an easy rest but he made it harder and then missed lmao
eats a MONSTER punish but sdis out of upthrow upair, phew
descent was actually pretty unsafe but hax didn’t capitalize
6:15 anticipates the roll, could have dash attacked other options too
nair beats imperfect sideB, easy edgeguard
6:02 “ok so if we hang out up here just how much stage will he give me?”
lots of aerials spaced just outside of fox’s jump range just in case he runs forward into them
really good spacing for like 10 seconds
5:51 almost gets that grab
5:50 doesn’t tilt shield
5:48 positions and takes adv of hax wayy overcommiting vertically w/ a pound
doesn’t position to punish the tech
5:45 WD is too deep. Not sure what it is that makes hbox shieldgrab vs WD grab against what looks like the same grab.
5:42 mashes the crap out of jump
5:41 huh that’s the same maybe poke but doesn’t look like it uptilt that we saw on DL. Not sure how that is working. It might be his tail?
ehhh he had time to rest
5:34 reads the roll but misses the pivot grab again
5:32 oh cool he does a neat conditioning bair. He does a shallow bair, then WDs away and SHs. In your head it seems like he will do a shallow bair but from farther away so it is safe to run forward but this time hbox does a deep, late bair and catches the approach.
5:25 yeah hbox is getting a lottttt off of how willing hax is to dj right next to him from an unreal edgeguard
note that theses bairs are not converting to kills but a) hbox is up a stock and b) nairs and fairs are easier to punish with kill moves at this %
5:20 very very very careful spacing so that his recovery is safe unless fox goes off a bit, which hax has not shown willingness to do. It is funny because presumably that is to avoid risk but he’s lost a lot of stocks and dropped a lot of opportunities by trying to be safe but not actually being safe.
I believe that the next few nairs have no intention of hitting and are baits due to being spaced so far out
5:08 anticipates the airdodge which actually is pretty impressive
5:03 stalls at prefect height, makes way down and through
4:57 that nair cuts off the whole stage, high DD execution demand, shield afterard to avoid a hard punish (at most grab which can’t directly kill)
but hax fakes him out and bairs. Should have been aware of that.
5:51 takes stage, hax clearly wants to ledgedash so he nairs over it where ledgedash can’t reach but will nick an accidental ledgejump
4:47 nairs, sees it is unsafe so backs up and then immediately does a counterpoke fair to stuff a punish. Trades but late grab out of it.
4:43 shield is getting low so he FHs back (which is what he should have done instead of nair just before) and hax allows the crossup for fear of aerial
some jank follows, lots of disrespectful pounds but hey they’ve worked often enough so far lol
hax overextends and dies.

shieldgrab FH nair, edgeguard
fthrow, edgeguard
reads airdodge recovery, double fair
intercept dj with bair, edgeguard

Stocks Lost
whiffed grab is baired
drops shield under FH bair

So big things are how hbox is maximizing his punishes and minimizing risk
he is not especcccially minimizing his chance of getting hit, but definitely minimizing getting hit with something that will lead to lots of damage or a kill
pay super close attention to the ranges that he chooses to nair/fair and how he will fade in or out based on how fox moves during startup. It is important and specific.
Note that fox puff is definitely a losing matchup. If you try to play “fair” then fox wins. Period. You have outplay fox to some capacity. You have to take some risks. But Hbox has found a way to choose to go for risks that will net him probably a grab then a kill and that will net fox maybe a sour spot nair or a shine (I’m talking about neutral. The pounds etc I think are totally disrespect i.e. wow this keeps working so I guess I will just keep doing it, which is a different kind of decision-making).

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